BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Randy Costa vs.
Tony Kelley

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-4-0 Randy Costa · UFC
2-2-0 Tony Kelley · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-4-0
UFC record
2-2-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
32.1
AgeΔ 7.4 yrs
39.5
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Switch
Stance
Switch
46.2
Layoff (months)Δ 3.4 mo
49.6
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Randy Costa carries real power — 1.69 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.30 Bantamweight norm.
Tony Kelley is a submission threat — 1.39 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Bantamweight norm.
Randy Costa absorbs 7.58 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.58 Bantamweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Randy Costa

Full career not yet synced for Randy Costa — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.7 wins over .500

Tony Kelley

Full career not yet synced for Tony Kelley — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1746.53/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
2395.55/min · norm 3.52
2027.58/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed
2094.85/min · norm 3.58
46.3%norm 43.4%
Striking accuracy
47.2%norm 43.4%
58.0%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
45.6%norm 56.6%
31.69/15 · norm 0.30
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.30

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Randy Costa

Distance 93.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 2.4% (norm 6.5%)

Tony Kelley

Distance 75.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 18.0% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 6.7% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Randy Costa

Head 89.6% (norm 77.4%) · Body 9.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.1% (norm 8.4%)

Tony Kelley

Head 62.6% (norm 77.4%) · Body 27.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.5% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Costa L/AAccBantamweight med Kelley L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 155 / 351 44.2% 39.0% 144 / 381 37.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 14 / 16 too few to rate 68.7% 72 / 91 79.1% 68.7%
On the ground 5 / 9 too few to rate 70.2% 23 / 34 67.6% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 143 / 337 42.4% 34.9% 112 / 317 35.3% 34.9%
To the body 27 / 35 77.1% 66.8% 89 / 141 63.1% 66.8%
To the legs 4 / 4 too few to rate 79.4% 38 / 48 79.2% 79.4%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 117 fighters · Bantamweight: 117 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Costa L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Kelley L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 135 / 386 35.0% 39.3% 165 / 334 49.4% 39.3%
In the clinch 38 / 49 77.6% 70.4% 36 / 39 92.3% 70.4%
On the ground 29 / 46 63.0% 72.4% 8 / 11 too few to rate 72.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 93 / 328 28.4% 34.9% 110 / 269 40.9% 34.9%
To the body 65 / 104 62.5% 66.0% 84 / 95 88.4% 66.0%
To the legs 44 / 49 89.8% 79.1% 15 / 20 too few to rate 79.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.12
150.0% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
1152.4% def · norm 66.7%
3:1612.3% of cage time · norm 17.4%
Control time
5:2412.5% of cage time · norm 17.4%
5:383:10 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control
13:424:46 per 15 · norm 2:24
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
41.39/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Costa has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.