BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Rafaello Oliveira vs.
Nik Lentz

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-6-0 Rafaello Oliveira · UFC
14-9-1 (1 NC) Nik Lentz · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-6-0
UFC record
14-9-1 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44.5
AgeΔ 2.5 yrs
42
5'8"
HeightΔ 0"
5'8"
71"
ReachΔ 3"
68"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
149.4
Layoff (months)Δ 83 mo
66.4
LLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Rafaello Oliveira is a submission threat — 1.60 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Nik Lentz is a submission threat — 1.24 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Nik Lentz hunts takedowns — 3.30 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Rafaello Oliveira

Full career not yet synced for Rafaello Oliveira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Nik Lentz

Full career not yet synced for Nik Lentz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 9-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1852.19/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
10793.44/min · norm 3.42
2853.38/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
10223.25/min · norm 3.37
33.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
47.6%norm 43.5%
59.3%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
50.1%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
20.10/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Rafaello Oliveira

Distance 81.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.0% (norm 8.0%)

Nik Lentz

Distance 74.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 13.9% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Rafaello Oliveira

Head 78.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.7% (norm 7.9%)

Nik Lentz

Head 76.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Oliveira L/AAccLightweight med Lentz L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 130 / 450 28.9% 37.9% 655 / 1686 38.8% 37.9%
In the clinch 16 / 43 37.2% 67.3% 213 / 316 67.4% 67.3%
On the ground 39 / 61 63.9% 69.1% 211 / 265 79.6% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 110 / 433 25.4% 35.0% 650 / 1731 37.6% 35.0%
To the body 38 / 67 56.7% 69.1% 269 / 342 78.7% 69.1%
To the legs 37 / 54 68.5% 81.9% 160 / 194 82.5% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Oliveira L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Lentz L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 188 / 569 33.0% 38.9% 701 / 1584 44.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 40 / 56 71.4% 68.6% 180 / 262 68.7% 68.6%
On the ground 57 / 76 75.0% 68.0% 141 / 202 69.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 157 / 530 29.6% 35.1% 762 / 1717 44.4% 35.1%
To the body 74 / 103 71.8% 68.1% 160 / 215 74.4% 68.1%
To the legs 54 / 68 79.4% 81.5% 100 / 116 86.2% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1436.8% acc · 2.49/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
6932.9% acc · 3.30/15 · norm 1.38
111.1% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
3643.9% def · norm 64.0%
30:3936.3% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
98:4331.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
7:521:23 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
75:453:37 per 15 · norm 2:46
91.60/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
261.24/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lentz has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.