Rafael Tobias vs.
Diyar Nurgozhay
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Rafael Tobias
Full career not yet synced for Rafael Tobias — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -2.0 wins over .500
Diyar Nurgozhay
Full career not yet synced for Diyar Nurgozhay — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.7 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Rafael Tobias
Distance 83.2% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 5.9% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 10.9% (norm 10.4%)
Diyar Nurgozhay
Distance 87.6% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 7.8% (norm 10.4%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Rafael Tobias
Head 85.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 9.9% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 5.0% (norm 9.7%)
Diyar Nurgozhay
Head 49.2% (norm 79.2%) · Body 33.7% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 17.1% (norm 9.7%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Tobias L/A | Acc | Light Heavyweight med | Nurgozhay L/A | Acc | Light Heavyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 26 / 84 | 31.0% | 41.4% | 104 / 169 | 61.5% | 41.4% |
| In the clinch | 4 / 6 | too few to rate | 70.9% | 6 / 9 | too few to rate | 70.9% |
| On the ground | 9 / 11 | too few to rate | 72.3% | 8 / 15 | too few to rate | 72.3% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 29 / 86 | 33.7% | 38.9% | 39 / 95 | 41.1% | 38.9% |
| To the body | 7 / 10 | too few to rate | 71.9% | 47 / 65 | 72.3% | 71.9% |
| To the legs | 3 / 5 | too few to rate | 81.8% | 32 / 33 | 97.0% | 81.8% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Tobias L/A | Opp acc | Light Heavyweight med | vs Nurgozhay L/A | Opp acc | Light Heavyweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 81 / 122 | 66.4% | 40.4% | 56 / 150 | 37.3% | 40.4% |
| In the clinch | 5 / 6 | too few to rate | 68.7% | 4 / 6 | too few to rate | 68.7% |
| On the ground | 8 / 15 | too few to rate | 70.4% | 9 / 12 | too few to rate | 70.4% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 33 / 71 | 46.5% | 37.5% | 43 / 125 | 34.4% | 37.5% |
| To the body | 37 / 47 | 78.7% | 72.3% | 12 / 24 | too few to rate | 72.3% |
| To the legs | 24 / 25 | 96.0% | 83.0% | 14 / 19 | too few to rate | 83.0% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nurgozhay has more cage time on record.