BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Rafael Dos Anjos vs.
Michael Chiesa

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

21-15-0 Rafael Dos Anjos · UFC
15-7-0 Michael Chiesa · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

21-15-0
UFC record
15-7-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
41.8
AgeΔ 3.1 yrs
38.7
5'8"
HeightΔ 5"
6'1"
70"
ReachΔ 5"
75"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
21.3
Layoff (months)Δ 17 mo
4.3
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Michael Chiesa hunts takedowns — 3.11 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Michael Chiesa is a submission threat — 1.04 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Rafael Dos Anjos hunts takedowns — 1.95 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Rafael Dos Anjos

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2115
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.02 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 48 documented bouts

In the UFC: 16-14 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Michael Chiesa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 157
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.4 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

18223.48/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
4092.02/min · norm 3.17
16923.23/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
3501.73/min · norm 3.06
47.1%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
40.7%norm 44.9%
60.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
58.0%norm 55.25%
70.20/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.07/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Rafael Dos Anjos

Distance 79.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 10.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.5% (norm 8.0%)

Michael Chiesa

Distance 75.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 9.7% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 14.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Rafael Dos Anjos

Head 74.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 7.9%)

Michael Chiesa

Head 85.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.2% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 2.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Anjos L/AAccLightweight med Chiesa L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1224 / 3059 40.0% 37.9% 249 / 760 32.8% 38.6%
In the clinch 321 / 407 78.9% 67.3% 65 / 98 66.3% 67.8%
On the ground 277 / 405 68.4% 69.1% 95 / 148 64.2% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 1063 / 2890 36.8% 35.0% 299 / 859 34.8% 37.2%
To the body 434 / 589 73.7% 69.1% 88 / 123 71.5% 70.7%
To the legs 325 / 392 82.9% 81.9% 22 / 24 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Anjos L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Chiesa L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1334 / 3750 35.6% 38.9% 262 / 712 36.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 235 / 324 72.5% 68.6% 48 / 68 70.6% 68.9%
On the ground 123 / 181 68.0% 68.0% 40 / 53 75.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1102 / 3462 31.8% 35.1% 181 / 605 29.9% 35.6%
To the body 352 / 530 66.4% 68.1% 88 / 127 69.3% 69.6%
To the legs 238 / 263 90.5% 81.5% 81 / 101 80.2% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

6835.6% acc · 1.95/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
4247.7% acc · 3.11/15 · norm 1.27
9154.8% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2765.9% def · norm 63.9%
136:4526.1% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
81:0340.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
125:273:35 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
37:002:44 per 15 · norm 3:15
200.57/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
141.04/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Anjos has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.