BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Paulo Thiago vs.
Brandon Thatch

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-8-0 Paulo Thiago · UFC
2-4-0 Brandon Thatch · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-8-0
UFC record
2-4-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
45.5
AgeΔ 4.4 yrs
41.1
5'11"
HeightΔ 3"
6'2"
74"
ReachΔ 0"
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
142.7
Layoff (months)Δ 27.5 mo
115.2
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Paulo Thiago is a submission threat — 1.21 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Brandon Thatch carries real power — 1.02 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Brandon Thatch is a submission threat — 0.68 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Paulo Thiago

Full career not yet synced for Paulo Thiago — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.8 wins over .500

Brandon Thatch

Full career not yet synced for Brandon Thatch — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2541.71/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
1192.70/min · norm 3.17
2951.99/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1603.63/min · norm 3.06
39.1%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
42.8%norm 44.9%
63.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
52.8%norm 55.25%
40.40/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
31.02/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Paulo Thiago

Distance 76.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 14.6% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 8.1%)

Brandon Thatch

Distance 80.2% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 15.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Paulo Thiago

Head 81.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.1% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 8.4%)

Brandon Thatch

Head 71.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 11.9% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Thiago L/AAccWelterweight med Thatch L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 151 / 495 30.5% 38.6% 79 / 223 35.4% 38.6%
In the clinch 73 / 95 76.8% 67.8% 31 / 43 72.1% 67.8%
On the ground 30 / 59 50.8% 67.2% 9 / 12 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 156 / 530 29.4% 37.2% 63 / 200 31.5% 37.2%
To the body 65 / 85 76.5% 70.7% 31 / 45 68.9% 70.7%
To the legs 33 / 34 97.1% 82.9% 25 / 33 75.8% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Thiago L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Thatch L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 168 / 611 27.5% 39.0% 79 / 227 34.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 29 / 52 55.8% 68.9% 26 / 38 68.4% 68.9%
On the ground 98 / 146 67.1% 68.0% 55 / 74 74.3% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 199 / 642 31.0% 35.6% 107 / 267 40.1% 35.6%
To the body 48 / 86 55.8% 69.6% 36 / 48 75.0% 69.6%
To the legs 48 / 81 59.3% 82.1% 17 / 24 too few to rate 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1431.8% acc · 1.42/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
466.7% acc · 1.36/15 · norm 1.27
3063.8% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
850.0% def · norm 63.9%
22:3815.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
1:323.5% of cage time · norm 18.5%
62:026:16 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
17:385:59 per 15 · norm 3:15
121.21/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
20.68/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Thiago has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.