BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Nicolas Dalby vs.
Alex Oliveira

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

8-5-1 (1 NC) Nicolas Dalby · UFC
11-10-0 (1 NC) Alex Oliveira · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

8-5-1 (1 NC)
UFC record
11-10-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
41.7
AgeΔ 3.2 yrs
38.5
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
74"
ReachΔ 2"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
8.4
Layoff (months)Δ 44.7 mo
53.1
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Alex Oliveira hunts takedowns — 2.35 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Alex Oliveira owns the mat — in control 33% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Nicolas Dalby rarely shoots — 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Nicolas Dalby

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 85
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 51
Tier 3 — regional circuit 110

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.14 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Alex Oliveira

Full career not yet synced for Alex Oliveira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7723.88/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
6292.99/min · norm 3.17
6993.51/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
5372.55/min · norm 3.06
43.5%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
51.1%norm 44.9%
52.2%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
46.7%norm 55.25%
20.15/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
60.43/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Nicolas Dalby

Distance 76.7% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 18.4% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.0% (norm 8.1%)

Alex Oliveira

Distance 69.7% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 17.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 13.3% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Nicolas Dalby

Head 74.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 8.4%)

Alex Oliveira

Head 71.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 17.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dalby L/AAccWelterweight med Oliveira L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 477 / 1360 35.1% 38.6% 374 / 857 43.6% 38.6%
In the clinch 236 / 326 72.4% 67.8% 142 / 209 67.9% 67.8%
On the ground 59 / 88 67.0% 67.2% 113 / 164 68.9% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 458 / 1316 34.8% 37.2% 356 / 884 40.3% 37.2%
To the body 188 / 292 64.4% 70.7% 158 / 218 72.5% 70.7%
To the legs 126 / 166 75.9% 82.9% 115 / 128 89.8% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dalby L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Oliveira L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 557 / 1253 44.5% 39.0% 303 / 704 43.0% 39.0%
In the clinch 91 / 123 74.0% 68.9% 108 / 141 76.6% 68.9%
On the ground 51 / 87 58.6% 68.0% 126 / 162 77.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 450 / 1143 39.4% 35.6% 328 / 737 44.5% 35.6%
To the body 150 / 210 71.4% 69.6% 90 / 135 66.7% 69.6%
To the legs 99 / 110 90.0% 82.1% 119 / 135 88.1% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1226.7% acc · 0.90/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
3338.4% acc · 2.35/15 · norm 1.27
3959.1% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
3063.8% def · norm 63.9%
45:3722.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
69:2733.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
54:314:06 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
52:553:46 per 15 · norm 3:15
10.08/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
80.57/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Oliveira has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.