BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Modestas Bukauskas vs.
Rafael Cerquiera

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

8-5-0 Modestas Bukauskas · UFC
0-3-0 Rafael Cerquiera · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

8-5-0
UFC record
0-3-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
32.5
Age
6'3"
Height
76"
Reach
Switch
Stance
2.7
Layoff (months)Δ 9.2 mo
11.9
WLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Rafael Cerquiera rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Modestas Bukauskas rarely shoots — 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Opponents land 61% of their strikes at range on Rafael Cerquiera, vs a 40% Light Heavyweight norm — a hole in the guard.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Modestas Bukauskas

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 85
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 71
Tier 3 — regional circuit 51

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.19 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Rafael Cerquiera

Full career not yet synced for Rafael Cerquiera — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4113.14/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
291.61/min · norm 3.41
5053.86/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
884.88/min · norm 3.35
43.0%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
44.6%norm 48.3%
50.5%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
36.7%norm 52.9%
10.11/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Modestas Bukauskas

Distance 91.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 2.9% (norm 10.4%)

Rafael Cerquiera

Distance 100.0% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 10.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Modestas Bukauskas

Head 85.8% (norm 79.2%) · Body 9.2% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 5.0% (norm 9.7%)

Rafael Cerquiera

Head 81.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 3.1% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 15.4% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Bukauskas L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Cerquiera L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 355 / 873 40.7% 41.4% 29 / 65 44.6% 41.4%
In the clinch 37 / 54 68.5% 70.9% 0 / 0 too few to rate 70.9%
On the ground 19 / 28 67.9% 72.3% 0 / 0 too few to rate 72.3%
BY TARGET
To the head 297 / 819 36.3% 38.9% 19 / 53 35.8% 38.9%
To the body 70 / 88 79.5% 71.9% 0 / 2 too few to rate 71.9%
To the legs 44 / 48 91.7% 81.8% 10 / 10 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Bukauskas L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Cerquiera L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 442 / 941 47.0% 40.4% 62 / 102 60.8% 40.4%
In the clinch 54 / 67 80.6% 68.7% 4 / 9 too few to rate 68.7%
On the ground 9 / 13 too few to rate 70.4% 22 / 28 78.6% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 202 / 637 31.7% 37.5% 63 / 112 56.2% 37.5%
To the body 176 / 230 76.5% 72.3% 14 / 15 too few to rate 72.3%
To the legs 127 / 154 82.5% 83.0% 11 / 12 too few to rate 83.0%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

266.7% acc · 0.23/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 0.87
2382.1% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
440.0% def · norm 66.7%
14:2111.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
0:272.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
19:362:14 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
11:489:48 per 15 · norm 2:48
10.11/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.27

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Bukauskas has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.