BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Mike Breeden vs.
Natan Levy

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-0 Mike Breeden · UFC
2-2-0 Natan Levy · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-0
UFC record
2-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 3 yrs
34
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
33.5
Layoff (months)Δ 4.8 mo
28.7
WLLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Natan Levy hunts takedowns — 5.51 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Mike Breeden absorbs 7.97 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.
Mike Breeden carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Mike Breeden

Full career not yet synced for Mike Breeden — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.2 wins over .500

Natan Levy

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 32
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 50
Tier 3 — regional circuit 10

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 11 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2036.60/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
2144.14/min · norm 3.42
2457.97/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1913.69/min · norm 3.37
49.9%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
51.9%norm 43.5%
41.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
59.0%norm 56.3%
10.49/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mike Breeden

Distance 92.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.1% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 1.0% (norm 8.0%)

Natan Levy

Distance 93.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 2.9% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mike Breeden

Head 81.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 2.5% (norm 7.9%)

Natan Levy

Head 70.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.5% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Breeden L/AAccLightweight med Levy L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 184 / 378 48.7% 37.9% 196 / 385 50.9% 37.9%
In the clinch 16 / 25 64.0% 67.3% 7 / 15 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 3 / 4 too few to rate 69.1% 11 / 12 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 143 / 332 43.1% 35.0% 113 / 291 38.8% 35.0%
To the body 51 / 65 78.5% 69.1% 68 / 86 79.1% 69.1%
To the legs 9 / 10 too few to rate 81.9% 33 / 35 94.3% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Breeden L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Levy L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 207 / 361 57.3% 38.9% 162 / 418 38.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 27 / 44 61.4% 68.6% 21 / 32 65.6% 68.6%
On the ground 11 / 12 too few to rate 68.0% 8 / 16 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 169 / 325 52.0% 35.1% 114 / 359 31.8% 35.1%
To the body 57 / 72 79.2% 68.1% 59 / 87 67.8% 68.1%
To the legs 19 / 20 too few to rate 81.5% 18 / 20 too few to rate 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

350.0% acc · 1.46/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1955.9% acc · 5.51/15 · norm 1.38
1664.0% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
637.5% def · norm 64.0%
2:006.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
9:4118.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
3:481:51 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
12:453:41 per 15 · norm 2:46
00.00/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Breeden has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.