BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Melvin Guillard vs.
Josh Neer

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-9-0 (1 NC) Melvin Guillard · UFC
6-9-0 Josh Neer · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-9-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
6-9-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
43
AgeΔ 0 yrs
43
5'9"
HeightΔ 2"
5'11"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
148.9
Layoff (months)Δ 12.5 mo
161.4
LNCWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Melvin Guillard carries real power — 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Josh Neer is a submission threat — 1.30 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Melvin Guillard is hard to hit — absorbs 1.83 sig. strikes per minute, vs a 3.37 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Melvin Guillard

Full career not yet synced for Melvin Guillard — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Josh Neer

Full career not yet synced for Josh Neer — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4483.06/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
4733.15/min · norm 3.17
2671.83/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
5443.63/min · norm 3.06
39.7%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
44.7%norm 44.9%
68.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
57.7%norm 55.25%
131.33/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.10/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Melvin Guillard

Distance 79.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 12.1% (norm 8.0%)

Josh Neer

Distance 61.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 20.7% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 17.4% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Melvin Guillard

Head 82.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 7.9%)

Josh Neer

Head 85.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 5.6% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guillard L/AAccLightweight med Neer L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 312 / 896 34.8% 37.9% 222 / 656 33.8% 38.6%
In the clinch 58 / 96 60.4% 67.3% 139 / 219 63.5% 67.8%
On the ground 78 / 136 57.4% 69.1% 112 / 184 60.9% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 300 / 928 32.3% 35.0% 352 / 910 38.7% 37.2%
To the body 90 / 134 67.2% 69.1% 72 / 90 80.0% 70.7%
To the legs 58 / 66 87.9% 81.9% 49 / 59 83.1% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guillard L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Neer L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 219 / 732 29.9% 38.9% 317 / 910 34.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 36 / 75 48.0% 68.6% 156 / 229 68.1% 68.9%
On the ground 12 / 31 38.7% 68.0% 71 / 147 48.3% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 123 / 604 20.4% 35.1% 357 / 1047 34.1% 35.6%
To the body 59 / 111 53.2% 68.1% 137 / 184 74.5% 69.6%
To the legs 85 / 123 69.1% 81.5% 50 / 55 90.9% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1466.7% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1041.7% acc · 1.00/15 · norm 1.27
5865.2% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
2742.2% def · norm 63.9%
12:558.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
32:4021.8% of cage time · norm 18.5%
34:063:29 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
54:525:29 per 15 · norm 3:15
20.21/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
131.30/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guillard has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.