BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Matt Hamill vs.
Jesse Forbes

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-5-0 Matt Hamill · UFC
0-3-0 Jesse Forbes · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-5-0
UFC record
0-3-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
49.8
AgeΔ 8 yrs
41.8
6'1"
HeightΔ 1"
6'2"
76"
ReachΔ 1"
75"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
153.9
Layoff (months)Δ 40.4 mo
194.3
LWLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Matt Hamill hunts takedowns — 3.00 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Jesse Forbes carries real power — 0.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Jesse Forbes is wasteful with strikes at range — only 16% land, vs a 40% Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Matt Hamill

Full career not yet synced for Matt Hamill — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Jesse Forbes

Full career not yet synced for Jesse Forbes — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5713.69/min · norm 3.41
Sig. strikes landed
442.11/min · norm 3.25
5893.80/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed
683.26/min · norm 3.20
42.4%norm 48.3%
Striking accuracy
23.2%norm 47.4%
61.4%norm 52.9%
Striking defense
56.7%norm 53.8%
10.10/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
10.72/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Matt Hamill

Distance 80.4% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 6.7% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 12.9% (norm 10.4%)

Jesse Forbes

Distance 80.0% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 18.4% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 1.6% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Matt Hamill

Head 89.2% (norm 79.2%) · Body 2.5% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 9.7%)

Jesse Forbes

Head 86.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 12.6% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 1.1% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Hamill L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Forbes L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 388 / 1082 35.9% 41.4% 24 / 152 15.8% 40.5%
In the clinch 55 / 90 61.1% 70.9% 19 / 35 54.3% 70.3%
On the ground 128 / 174 73.6% 72.3% 1 / 3 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 467 / 1201 38.9% 38.9% 25 / 164 15.2% 38.9%
To the body 23 / 34 67.6% 71.9% 17 / 24 too few to rate 71.7%
To the legs 81 / 111 73.0% 81.8% 2 / 2 too few to rate 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Hamill L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Forbes L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 463 / 1299 35.6% 40.4% 31 / 101 30.7% 39.5%
In the clinch 69 / 128 53.9% 68.7% 28 / 43 65.1% 70.9%
On the ground 57 / 99 57.6% 70.4% 9 / 13 too few to rate 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 343 / 1209 28.4% 37.5% 48 / 134 35.8% 37.9%
To the body 110 / 155 71.0% 72.3% 10 / 12 too few to rate 71.3%
To the legs 136 / 162 84.0% 83.0% 10 / 11 too few to rate 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

3134.1% acc · 3.00/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
150.0% acc · 0.72/15 · norm 1.42
1191.7% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
770.0% def · norm 63.1%
36:0023.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
1:428.1% of cage time · norm 19.75%
3:520:22 per 15 · norm 2:48
Time under control
4:333:16 per 15 · norm 3:00
00.00/15 · norm 0.27
Submission attempts
10.72/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Hamill has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.