BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Matt Dwyer vs.
Randy Brown

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-0 Matt Dwyer · UFC
14-8-0 Randy Brown · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-0
UFC record
14-8-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
36.6
AgeΔ 0.5 yrs
36.1
6'4"
HeightΔ 1"
6'3"
76"
ReachΔ 2"
78"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
126.2
Layoff (months)Δ 122.4 mo
3.8
LLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Matt Dwyer carries real power — 0.88 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Matt Dwyer rarely shoots — 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Randy Brown rarely shoots — 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Matt Dwyer

Full career not yet synced for Matt Dwyer — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Randy Brown

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 148
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.28 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

882.57/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
10164.39/min · norm 3.17
1113.24/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
7753.35/min · norm 3.06
34.2%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
47.1%norm 44.9%
54.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
53.5%norm 55.25%
20.88/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
60.39/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Matt Dwyer

Distance 84.8% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 11.3% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 3.9% (norm 8.1%)

Randy Brown

Distance 85.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 8.8% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.3% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Matt Dwyer

Head 74.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 8.4%)

Randy Brown

Head 76.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dwyer L/AAccWelterweight med Brown L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 65 / 218 29.8% 38.6% 784 / 1853 42.3% 38.6%
In the clinch 18 / 29 62.1% 67.8% 154 / 190 81.1% 67.8%
On the ground 5 / 10 too few to rate 67.2% 78 / 115 67.8% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 49 / 191 25.7% 37.2% 631 / 1651 38.2% 37.2%
To the body 13 / 33 39.4% 70.7% 208 / 289 72.0% 70.7%
To the legs 26 / 33 78.8% 82.9% 177 / 218 81.2% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dwyer L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Brown L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 69 / 178 38.8% 39.0% 596 / 1410 42.3% 39.0%
In the clinch 30 / 44 68.2% 68.9% 106 / 143 74.1% 68.9%
On the ground 12 / 22 too few to rate 68.0% 73 / 115 63.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 67 / 178 37.6% 35.6% 297 / 1063 27.9% 35.6%
To the body 21 / 32 65.6% 69.6% 142 / 199 71.4% 69.6%
To the legs 23 / 34 67.6% 82.1% 336 / 406 82.8% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

110.0% acc · 0.44/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1134.4% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.27
360.0% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
4774.6% def · norm 63.9%
3:129.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
36:4615.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
6:242:48 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
64:224:10 per 15 · norm 3:15
00.00/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
80.52/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brown has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.