BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Mac Danzig vs.
Justin Buchholz

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

5-8-0 Mac Danzig · UFC
1-4-0 Justin Buchholz · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

5-8-0
UFC record
1-4-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
46.6
AgeΔ 3.6 yrs
43
5'8"
HeightΔ 4"
6'0"
70"
ReachΔ 3"
73"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
151.7
Layoff (months)Δ 46.2 mo
197.9
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Justin Buchholz rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Justin Buchholz is a submission threat — 0.79 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Mac Danzig is a submission threat — 0.64 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Mac Danzig

Full career not yet synced for Mac Danzig — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Justin Buchholz

Full career not yet synced for Justin Buchholz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4923.49/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
892.35/min · norm 3.42
4773.39/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1574.14/min · norm 3.37
49.9%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
26.6%norm 43.5%
57.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
51.4%norm 56.3%
30.32/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.40/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mac Danzig

Distance 77.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 13.4% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 8.0%)

Justin Buchholz

Distance 76.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 14.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mac Danzig

Head 81.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.9% (norm 7.9%)

Justin Buchholz

Head 85.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Danzig L/AAccLightweight med Buchholz L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 338 / 762 44.4% 37.9% 56 / 256 21.9% 37.9%
In the clinch 97 / 132 73.5% 67.3% 23 / 49 46.9% 67.3%
On the ground 57 / 92 62.0% 69.1% 10 / 30 33.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 337 / 802 42.0% 35.0% 63 / 285 22.1% 35.0%
To the body 95 / 116 81.9% 69.1% 14 / 24 too few to rate 69.1%
To the legs 60 / 68 88.2% 81.9% 12 / 26 46.2% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Danzig L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Buchholz L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 243 / 780 31.2% 38.9% 96 / 220 43.6% 38.9%
In the clinch 139 / 189 73.5% 68.6% 36 / 57 63.2% 68.6%
On the ground 95 / 146 65.1% 68.0% 25 / 46 54.3% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 289 / 893 32.4% 35.1% 112 / 266 42.1% 35.1%
To the body 100 / 128 78.1% 68.1% 20 / 30 66.7% 68.1%
To the legs 88 / 94 93.6% 81.5% 25 / 27 92.6% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1237.5% acc · 1.28/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.38
2347.9% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
333.3% def · norm 64.0%
30:3321.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
4:3111.9% of cage time · norm 19.5%
46:294:57 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
12:084:48 per 15 · norm 2:46
60.64/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
20.79/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Danzig has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.