BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Luke Barnatt vs.
Mats Nilsson

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-3-0 Luke Barnatt · UFC
0-2-0 Mats Nilsson · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-3-0
UFC record
0-2-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
38
AgeΔ 4 yrs
42
6'6"
HeightΔ 5"
6'1"
77"
Reach
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
134.7
Layoff (months)Δ 4.4 mo
139.1
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Mats Nilsson is a submission threat — 2.32 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Mats Nilsson hunts takedowns — 3.87 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Luke Barnatt rarely shoots — 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Luke Barnatt

Full career not yet synced for Luke Barnatt — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Mats Nilsson

Full career not yet synced for Mats Nilsson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3174.43/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
582.99/min · norm 3.17
2773.87/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
1095.62/min · norm 3.06
36.4%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
39.2%norm 44.9%
59.1%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
63.8%norm 55.25%
20.42/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Luke Barnatt

Distance 90.3% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 7.5% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 2.2% (norm 10.3%)

Mats Nilsson

Distance 92.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 0.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Luke Barnatt

Head 80.2% (norm 78.0%) · Body 13.6% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 8.4%)

Mats Nilsson

Head 82.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 6.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.8% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Barnatt L/AAccMiddleweight med Nilsson L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 256 / 786 32.6% 40.5% 51 / 137 37.2% 38.6%
In the clinch 48 / 65 73.8% 70.3% 6 / 10 too few to rate 67.8%
On the ground 13 / 19 too few to rate 69.1% 1 / 1 too few to rate 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 220 / 698 31.5% 38.9% 34 / 122 27.9% 37.2%
To the body 66 / 118 55.9% 71.7% 9 / 10 too few to rate 70.7%
To the legs 31 / 54 57.4% 83.3% 15 / 16 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Barnatt L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Nilsson L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 225 / 585 38.5% 39.5% 80 / 260 30.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 30 / 51 58.8% 70.9% 12 / 19 too few to rate 68.9%
On the ground 22 / 41 53.7% 69.0% 17 / 22 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 195 / 545 35.8% 37.9% 80 / 260 30.8% 35.6%
To the body 32 / 53 60.4% 71.3% 22 / 33 66.7% 69.6%
To the legs 50 / 79 63.3% 82.1% 7 / 8 too few to rate 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

342.9% acc · 0.63/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
583.3% acc · 3.87/15 · norm 1.27
2163.6% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
444.4% def · norm 63.9%
2:083.0% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
2:5815.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
15:523:19 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
4:403:36 per 15 · norm 3:15
20.42/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
32.32/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Barnatt has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.