BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Luke Barnatt vs.
Andrew Craig

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-3-0 Luke Barnatt · UFC
3-4-0 Andrew Craig · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-3-0
UFC record
3-4-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
38.3
AgeΔ 2.3 yrs
40.6
6'6"
HeightΔ 5"
6'1"
77"
ReachΔ 1"
76"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
134.7
Layoff (months)Δ 2 mo
132.7
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Andrew Craig rarely shoots — 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Luke Barnatt rarely shoots — 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Luke Barnatt outworks the Middleweight division — 4.43 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.25 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Luke Barnatt

Full career not yet synced for Luke Barnatt — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Andrew Craig

Full career not yet synced for Andrew Craig — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3174.43/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
2052.39/min · norm 3.25
2773.87/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
2583.01/min · norm 3.20
36.4%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
40.0%norm 47.4%
59.1%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
50.6%norm 53.8%
20.42/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
20.35/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Luke Barnatt

Distance 90.3% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 7.5% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 2.2% (norm 10.3%)

Andrew Craig

Distance 86.9% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 6.6% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Luke Barnatt

Head 80.2% (norm 78.0%) · Body 13.6% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 8.4%)

Andrew Craig

Head 84.2% (norm 78.0%) · Body 7.6% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Barnatt L/AAccMiddleweight med Craig L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 256 / 786 32.6% 40.5% 150 / 445 33.7% 40.5%
In the clinch 48 / 65 73.8% 70.3% 26 / 33 78.8% 70.3%
On the ground 13 / 19 too few to rate 69.1% 29 / 34 85.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 220 / 698 31.5% 38.9% 142 / 431 32.9% 38.9%
To the body 66 / 118 55.9% 71.7% 28 / 39 71.8% 71.7%
To the legs 31 / 54 57.4% 83.3% 35 / 42 83.3% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Barnatt L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Craig L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 225 / 585 38.5% 39.5% 190 / 442 43.0% 39.5%
In the clinch 30 / 51 58.8% 70.9% 28 / 31 90.3% 70.9%
On the ground 22 / 41 53.7% 69.0% 40 / 49 81.6% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 195 / 545 35.8% 37.9% 164 / 390 42.1% 37.9%
To the body 32 / 53 60.4% 71.3% 51 / 77 66.2% 71.3%
To the legs 50 / 79 63.3% 82.1% 43 / 55 78.2% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

342.9% acc · 0.63/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
337.5% acc · 0.53/15 · norm 1.42
2163.6% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
2672.2% def · norm 63.1%
2:083.0% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
12:1014.2% of cage time · norm 19.75%
15:523:19 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
25:254:26 per 15 · norm 3:00
20.42/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Craig has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.