BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Lone'er Kavanagh vs.
Brandon Royval

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-2-0 Lone'er Kavanagh · UFC
8-5-0 Brandon Royval · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-2-0
UFC record
8-5-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
27
AgeΔ 6 yrs
33
5'6"
HeightΔ 3"
5'9"
67"
ReachΔ 1"
68"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
0.9
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
0.9
LWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Brandon Royval is a submission threat — 1.18 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.58 Flyweight norm.
Brandon Royval carries real power — 0.30 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Lone'er Kavanagh defends body shots well — opponents land just 49%, vs a 68% Flyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Lone'er Kavanagh

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 40
Tier 3 — regional circuit 20

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.46 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 12 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Brandon Royval

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 85
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 62
Tier 3 — regional circuit 42

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.1 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3214.10/min · norm 3.49
Sig. strikes landed
8525.60/min · norm 3.49
3083.94/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed
6454.24/min · norm 3.24
50.0%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
42.6%norm 44.6%
53.5%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
42.8%norm 56.4%
10.19/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
30.30/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Lone'er Kavanagh

Distance 85.7% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 5.8% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 8.6% (norm 7.3%)

Brandon Royval

Distance 91.5% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 3.1% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 5.4% (norm 7.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Lone'er Kavanagh

Head 70.2% (norm 75.9%) · Body 17.4% (norm 13.3%) · Legs 12.3% (norm 9.3%)

Brandon Royval

Head 87.3% (norm 75.9%) · Body 8.6% (norm 13.3%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Kavanagh L/AAccFlyweight med Royval L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 258 / 550 46.9% 40.0% 729 / 1830 39.8% 40.0%
In the clinch 25 / 37 67.6% 70.4% 47 / 62 75.8% 70.4%
On the ground 38 / 55 69.1% 69.7% 76 / 109 69.7% 69.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 184 / 451 40.8% 37.6% 673 / 1746 38.5% 37.6%
To the body 79 / 112 70.5% 68.5% 123 / 173 71.1% 68.5%
To the legs 58 / 79 73.4% 80.0% 56 / 82 68.3% 80.0%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Kavanagh L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Royval L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 238 / 575 41.4% 40.1% 549 / 976 56.2% 40.1%
In the clinch 30 / 39 76.9% 68.8% 47 / 74 63.5% 68.8%
On the ground 40 / 49 81.6% 71.1% 49 / 78 62.8% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 188 / 473 39.7% 35.2% 379 / 813 46.6% 35.2%
To the body 47 / 96 49.0% 68.2% 138 / 173 79.8% 68.2%
To the legs 73 / 94 77.7% 80.3% 128 / 142 90.1% 80.3%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

646.2% acc · 1.15/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
964.3% acc · 0.89/15 · norm 1.30
1982.6% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
2945.3% def · norm 62.5%
9:4112.4% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
14:249.5% of cage time · norm 17.0%
14:172:44 per 15 · norm 2:44
Time under control
53:195:15 per 15 · norm 2:44
20.38/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
121.18/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Royval has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.