BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kyoji Horiguchi vs.
Dustin Pague

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

9-2-0 Kyoji Horiguchi · UFC
1-5-0 Dustin Pague · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

9-2-0
UFC record
1-5-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
35.8
AgeΔ 3.2 yrs
39
5'5"
HeightΔ 4"
5'9"
66"
ReachΔ 8"
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
1.5
Layoff (months)Δ 152 mo
153.5
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Dustin Pague is a submission threat — 2.57 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Bantamweight norm.
Kyoji Horiguchi carries real power — 0.59 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Opponents land 51% of their head shots on Dustin Pague, vs a 35% Bantamweight norm — a hole in the guard.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kyoji Horiguchi

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 245
Tier 3 — regional circuit 111

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.66 · 24 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 42 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Dustin Pague

Full career not yet synced for Dustin Pague — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5553.64/min · norm 3.49
Sig. strikes landed
961.65/min · norm 3.52
3172.08/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed
1732.96/min · norm 3.58
47.6%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
53.6%norm 43.4%
64.0%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
41.2%norm 56.6%
60.59/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.30

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kyoji Horiguchi

Distance 78.6% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 8.6% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 12.8% (norm 7.3%)

Dustin Pague

Distance 74.3% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.4% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 17.3% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kyoji Horiguchi

Head 83.0% (norm 75.9%) · Body 11.7% (norm 13.3%) · Legs 5.3% (norm 9.3%)

Dustin Pague

Head 71.5% (norm 77.4%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 15.6% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Horiguchi L/AAccFlyweight med Pague L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 389 / 917 42.4% 40.0% 58 / 133 43.6% 39.0%
In the clinch 72 / 100 72.0% 70.4% 13 / 15 too few to rate 68.7%
On the ground 94 / 149 63.1% 69.7% 25 / 31 80.6% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 417 / 968 43.1% 37.6% 54 / 128 42.2% 34.9%
To the body 90 / 136 66.2% 68.5% 18 / 23 too few to rate 66.8%
To the legs 48 / 62 77.4% 80.0% 24 / 28 85.7% 79.4%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Bantamweight: 117 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Horiguchi L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Pague L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 237 / 766 30.9% 40.1% 81 / 166 48.8% 39.3%
In the clinch 55 / 82 67.1% 68.8% 25 / 27 92.6% 70.4%
On the ground 25 / 33 75.8% 71.1% 67 / 101 66.3% 72.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 176 / 660 26.7% 35.2% 121 / 236 51.3% 34.9%
To the body 80 / 138 58.0% 68.2% 14 / 19 too few to rate 66.0%
To the legs 61 / 83 73.5% 80.3% 38 / 39 97.4% 79.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1740.5% acc · 1.67/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
444.4% acc · 1.03/15 · norm 1.12
3061.2% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
555.6% def · norm 66.7%
33:1021.7% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
13:0722.5% of cage time · norm 17.4%
27:122:40 per 15 · norm 2:44
Time under control
28:477:23 per 15 · norm 2:24
10.10/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
102.57/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Horiguchi has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.