BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kurt Holobaugh vs.
Trey Ogden

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-7-0 Kurt Holobaugh · UFC
3-3-0 (1 NC) Trey Ogden · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-7-0
UFC record
3-3-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
39.9
AgeΔ 3.2 yrs
36.7
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
14.2
Layoff (months)Δ 4.6 mo
18.8
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWNCL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Kurt Holobaugh is a submission threat — 0.77 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Trey Ogden is a submission threat — 0.73 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Kurt Holobaugh rarely shoots — 0.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kurt Holobaugh

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 27
Tier 3 — regional circuit 203

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.1 wins over .500

Trey Ogden

Full career not yet synced for Trey Ogden — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4564.65/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
3303.20/min · norm 3.42
4434.52/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
3603.49/min · norm 3.37
45.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
50.2%norm 43.5%
48.5%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
55.6%norm 56.3%
10.15/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kurt Holobaugh

Distance 86.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 10.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 8.0%)

Trey Ogden

Distance 95.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 1.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kurt Holobaugh

Head 77.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.6% (norm 7.9%)

Trey Ogden

Head 69.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 18.7% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Holobaugh L/AAccLightweight med Ogden L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 357 / 880 40.6% 37.9% 302 / 626 48.2% 37.9%
In the clinch 75 / 104 72.1% 67.3% 18 / 22 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 24 / 30 80.0% 69.1% 10 / 10 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 283 / 784 36.1% 35.0% 165 / 454 36.3% 35.0%
To the body 113 / 153 73.9% 69.1% 62 / 81 76.5% 69.1%
To the legs 60 / 77 77.9% 81.9% 103 / 123 83.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Holobaugh L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Ogden L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 292 / 648 45.1% 38.9% 303 / 730 41.5% 38.9%
In the clinch 72 / 102 70.6% 68.6% 4 / 6 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 79 / 110 71.8% 68.0% 53 / 75 70.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 329 / 717 45.9% 35.1% 144 / 493 29.2% 35.1%
To the body 80 / 103 77.7% 68.1% 80 / 158 50.6% 68.1%
To the legs 34 / 40 85.0% 81.5% 136 / 160 85.0% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

533.3% acc · 0.77/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1332.5% acc · 1.89/15 · norm 1.38
1336.1% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
3100.0% def · norm 64.0%
16:1616.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
28:1527.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
41:386:22 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
14:332:06 per 15 · norm 2:46
50.77/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
50.73/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Holobaugh has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.