BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kurt Holobaugh vs.
Austin Hubbard

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-7-0 Kurt Holobaugh · UFC
4-8-0 Austin Hubbard · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-7-0
UFC record
4-8-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
39.9
AgeΔ 5.3 yrs
34.6
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
14.2
Layoff (months)Δ 2.8 mo
11.4
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Kurt Holobaugh is a submission threat — 0.77 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Kurt Holobaugh rarely shoots — 0.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kurt Holobaugh

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 27
Tier 3 — regional circuit 203

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 33 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.1 wins over .500

Austin Hubbard

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 48
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 103

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.48 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4564.65/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
6223.97/min · norm 3.42
4434.52/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
6414.10/min · norm 3.37
45.0%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
42.0%norm 43.5%
48.5%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
55.2%norm 56.3%
10.15/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kurt Holobaugh

Distance 86.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 10.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.0% (norm 8.0%)

Austin Hubbard

Distance 92.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kurt Holobaugh

Head 77.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.6% (norm 7.9%)

Austin Hubbard

Head 70.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 19.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.5% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Holobaugh L/AAccLightweight med Hubbard L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 357 / 880 40.6% 37.9% 548 / 1363 40.2% 37.9%
In the clinch 75 / 104 72.1% 67.3% 40 / 70 57.1% 67.3%
On the ground 24 / 30 80.0% 69.1% 34 / 47 72.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 283 / 784 36.1% 35.0% 326 / 1044 31.2% 35.0%
To the body 113 / 153 73.9% 69.1% 176 / 295 59.7% 69.1%
To the legs 60 / 77 77.9% 81.9% 120 / 141 85.1% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Holobaugh L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Hubbard L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 292 / 648 45.1% 38.9% 560 / 1330 42.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 72 / 102 70.6% 68.6% 45 / 57 78.9% 68.6%
On the ground 79 / 110 71.8% 68.0% 36 / 43 83.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 329 / 717 45.9% 35.1% 376 / 1070 35.1% 35.1%
To the body 80 / 103 77.7% 68.1% 117 / 184 63.6% 68.1%
To the legs 34 / 40 85.0% 81.5% 148 / 176 84.1% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

533.3% acc · 0.77/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1728.8% acc · 1.63/15 · norm 1.38
1336.1% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
3068.2% def · norm 64.0%
16:1616.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
27:1917.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
41:386:22 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
25:352:27 per 15 · norm 2:46
50.77/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
10.10/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Hubbard has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.