BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Khamzat Chimaev vs.
Gilbert Burns

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

9-1-0 Khamzat Chimaev · UFC
15-10-0 Gilbert Burns · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

9-1-0
UFC record
15-10-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
32
AgeΔ 8 yrs
40
6'2"
HeightΔ 4"
5'10"
75"
ReachΔ 4"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
3.6
LWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Khamzat Chimaev hunts takedowns — 5.32 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Khamzat Chimaev is a submission threat — 1.37 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.47 Middleweight norm.
Gilbert Burns hunts takedowns — 2.04 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Khamzat Chimaev

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 91
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.03 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 16 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +6.4 wins over .500

Gilbert Burns

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1510
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.21 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3964.01/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
9743.16/min · norm 3.17
2942.98/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
11353.68/min · norm 3.06
54.2%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
48.1%norm 44.9%
52.0%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
52.5%norm 55.25%
20.30/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
40.19/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Khamzat Chimaev

Distance 69.5% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 28.4% (norm 10.3%)

Gilbert Burns

Distance 84.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 7.1% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.5% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Khamzat Chimaev

Head 80.5% (norm 78.0%) · Body 14.2% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 8.4%)

Gilbert Burns

Head 74.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 11.9% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Chimaev L/AAccMiddleweight med Burns L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 221 / 507 43.6% 40.5% 737 / 1708 43.1% 38.6%
In the clinch 13 / 16 too few to rate 70.3% 99 / 144 68.8% 67.8%
On the ground 162 / 207 78.3% 69.1% 138 / 173 79.8% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 301 / 588 51.2% 38.9% 571 / 1506 37.9% 37.2%
To the body 58 / 104 55.8% 71.7% 216 / 279 77.4% 70.7%
To the legs 37 / 38 97.4% 83.3% 187 / 240 77.9% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Chimaev L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Burns L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 264 / 578 45.7% 39.5% 957 / 2144 44.6% 39.0%
In the clinch 11 / 12 too few to rate 70.9% 89 / 121 73.6% 68.9%
On the ground 19 / 23 too few to rate 69.0% 89 / 126 70.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 245 / 548 44.7% 37.9% 766 / 1896 40.4% 35.6%
To the body 35 / 48 72.9% 71.3% 196 / 298 65.8% 69.6%
To the legs 14 / 17 too few to rate 82.1% 173 / 197 87.8% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

3558.3% acc · 5.32/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
4235.6% acc · 2.04/15 · norm 1.27
787.5% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
2253.7% def · norm 63.9%
55:4756.5% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
70:2122.8% of cage time · norm 18.5%
4:000:36 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
36:521:47 per 15 · norm 3:15
91.37/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
90.44/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Burns has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.