BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kevin Holland vs.
Michael Chiesa

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

16-12-0 (1 NC) Kevin Holland · UFC
15-7-0 Michael Chiesa · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

16-12-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
15-7-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
33.7
AgeΔ 5 yrs
38.7
6'3"
HeightΔ 2"
6'1"
81"
ReachΔ 6"
75"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 0.5 mo
4.3
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Michael Chiesa hunts takedowns — 3.11 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Michael Chiesa is a submission threat — 1.04 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Kevin Holland rarely shoots — 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kevin Holland

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1812
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 12
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 19 tier-1/2 wins · 23 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Michael Chiesa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 157
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.4 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12884.18/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
4092.02/min · norm 3.17
10173.30/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
3501.73/min · norm 3.06
50.3%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
40.7%norm 44.9%
50.0%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
58.0%norm 55.25%
70.34/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
10.07/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kevin Holland

Distance 82.8% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 9.3% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 7.9% (norm 10.3%)

Michael Chiesa

Distance 75.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 9.7% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 14.7% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kevin Holland

Head 70.1% (norm 78.0%) · Body 14.0% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 15.8% (norm 8.4%)

Michael Chiesa

Head 85.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.2% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 2.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Holland L/AAccMiddleweight med Chiesa L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 962 / 2122 45.3% 40.5% 249 / 760 32.8% 38.6%
In the clinch 173 / 238 72.7% 70.3% 65 / 98 66.3% 67.8%
On the ground 153 / 203 75.4% 69.1% 95 / 148 64.2% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 704 / 1797 39.2% 38.9% 299 / 859 34.8% 37.2%
To the body 242 / 360 67.2% 71.7% 88 / 123 71.5% 70.7%
To the legs 342 / 406 84.2% 83.3% 22 / 24 too few to rate 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Holland L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Chiesa L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 741 / 1548 47.9% 39.5% 262 / 712 36.8% 39.0%
In the clinch 112 / 165 67.9% 70.9% 48 / 68 70.6% 68.9%
On the ground 164 / 319 51.4% 69.0% 40 / 53 75.5% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 574 / 1442 39.8% 37.9% 181 / 605 29.9% 35.6%
To the body 250 / 369 67.8% 71.3% 88 / 127 69.3% 69.6%
To the legs 193 / 221 87.3% 82.1% 81 / 101 80.2% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1739.5% acc · 0.83/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
4247.7% acc · 3.11/15 · norm 1.27
6757.8% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
2765.9% def · norm 63.9%
40:4613.2% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
81:0340.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
100:394:53 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
37:002:44 per 15 · norm 3:15
130.63/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
141.04/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Holland has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.