Kevin Casey vs.
Rafael Natal
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Kevin Casey
Full career not yet synced for Kevin Casey — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500
Rafael Natal
Full career not yet synced for Rafael Natal — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 3-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Kevin Casey
Distance 69.1% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 7.1% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 23.8% (norm 10.3%)
Rafael Natal
Distance 76.6% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 15.3% (norm 10.3%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Kevin Casey
Head 72.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 17.0% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 10.6% (norm 8.4%)
Rafael Natal
Head 71.2% (norm 78.0%) · Body 12.5% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 16.3% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Casey L/A | Acc | Middleweight med | Natal L/A | Acc | Middleweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 89 / 215 | 41.4% | 40.5% | 432 / 1049 | 41.2% | 40.5% |
| In the clinch | 20 / 22 | too few to rate | 70.3% | 79 / 111 | 71.2% | 70.3% |
| On the ground | 61 / 74 | 82.4% | 69.1% | 145 / 210 | 69.0% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 103 / 225 | 45.8% | 38.9% | 379 / 976 | 38.8% | 38.9% |
| To the body | 38 / 53 | 71.7% | 71.7% | 93 / 171 | 54.4% | 71.7% |
| To the legs | 29 / 33 | 87.9% | 83.3% | 184 / 223 | 82.5% | 83.3% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Casey L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med | vs Natal L/A | Opp acc | Middleweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 93 / 251 | 37.1% | 39.5% | 369 / 1016 | 36.3% | 39.5% |
| In the clinch | 87 / 117 | 74.4% | 70.9% | 58 / 89 | 65.2% | 70.9% |
| On the ground | 56 / 90 | 62.2% | 69.0% | 97 / 131 | 74.0% | 69.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 133 / 337 | 39.5% | 37.9% | 315 / 950 | 33.2% | 37.9% |
| To the body | 76 / 93 | 81.7% | 71.3% | 73 / 117 | 62.4% | 71.3% |
| To the legs | 27 / 28 | 96.4% | 82.1% | 136 / 169 | 80.5% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Natal has more cage time on record.