BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kevin Casey vs.
Josh Samman

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-3-1 (2 NC) Kevin Casey · UFC
3-2-0 Josh Samman · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-3-1 (2 NC)
UFC record
3-2-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
45.1
AgeΔ 6.7 yrs
38.4
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
77"
ReachΔ 2"
79"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
119.3
Layoff (months)Δ 1.5 mo
120.8
LDLNCW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Josh Samman carries real power — 0.73 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Opponents land 64% of their head shots on Josh Samman, vs a 38% Middleweight norm — a hole in the guard.
Kevin Casey owns the mat — in control 30% of cage time, vs a 20% Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kevin Casey

Full career not yet synced for Kevin Casey — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Josh Samman

Full career not yet synced for Josh Samman — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1702.74/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
862.08/min · norm 3.25
2363.80/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
1022.47/min · norm 3.20
54.7%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
52.8%norm 47.4%
48.5%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
34.6%norm 53.8%
10.24/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
20.73/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kevin Casey

Distance 69.1% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 7.1% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 23.8% (norm 10.3%)

Josh Samman

Distance 47.2% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 38.0% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 14.7% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kevin Casey

Head 72.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 17.0% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 10.6% (norm 8.4%)

Josh Samman

Head 56.4% (norm 78.0%) · Body 33.1% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Casey L/AAccMiddleweight med Samman L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 89 / 215 41.4% 40.5% 36 / 77 46.8% 40.5%
In the clinch 20 / 22 too few to rate 70.3% 36 / 62 58.1% 70.3%
On the ground 61 / 74 82.4% 69.1% 14 / 24 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 103 / 225 45.8% 38.9% 34 / 92 37.0% 38.9%
To the body 38 / 53 71.7% 71.7% 35 / 54 64.8% 71.7%
To the legs 29 / 33 87.9% 83.3% 17 / 17 too few to rate 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Casey L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Samman L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 93 / 251 37.1% 39.5% 13 / 38 34.2% 39.5%
In the clinch 87 / 117 74.4% 70.9% 14 / 18 too few to rate 70.9%
On the ground 56 / 90 62.2% 69.0% 75 / 100 75.0% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 133 / 337 39.5% 37.9% 84 / 132 63.6% 37.9%
To the body 76 / 93 81.7% 71.3% 17 / 22 too few to rate 71.3%
To the legs 27 / 28 96.4% 82.1% 1 / 2 too few to rate 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

321.4% acc · 0.73/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
333.3% acc · 1.09/15 · norm 1.42
342.9% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
333.3% def · norm 63.1%
18:2629.7% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
12:1229.6% of cage time · norm 19.75%
9:392:20 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
21:247:46 per 15 · norm 3:00
20.48/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
10.36/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Casey has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.