BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Kelvin Gastelum vs.
Rick Story

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

14-11-0 (1 NC) Kelvin Gastelum · UFC
12-7-0 Rick Story · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

14-11-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
12-7-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
34.8
AgeΔ 7.1 yrs
41.9
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
71"
ReachΔ 0"
71"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 115.7 mo
119.5
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Rick Story hunts takedowns — 2.53 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Rick Story is a submission threat — 0.89 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Kelvin Gastelum carries real power — 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Kelvin Gastelum

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1411
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.01 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.0 wins over .500

Rick Story

Full career not yet synced for Rick Story — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12693.65/min · norm 3.25
Sig. strikes landed
9013.80/min · norm 3.17
12223.52/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed
5152.17/min · norm 3.06
42.4%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
41.8%norm 44.9%
57.3%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
62.5%norm 55.25%
100.43/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
60.38/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Kelvin Gastelum

Distance 90.0% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 10.3%)

Rick Story

Distance 74.4% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 14.5% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 11.1% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Kelvin Gastelum

Head 80.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 10.9% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)

Rick Story

Head 73.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 6.5% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Gastelum L/AAccMiddleweight med Story L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1082 / 2695 40.1% 40.5% 548 / 1606 34.1% 38.6%
In the clinch 109 / 171 63.7% 70.3% 201 / 312 64.4% 67.8%
On the ground 78 / 129 60.5% 69.1% 152 / 240 63.3% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 824 / 2419 34.1% 38.9% 465 / 1586 29.3% 37.2%
To the body 233 / 326 71.5% 71.7% 312 / 432 72.2% 70.7%
To the legs 212 / 250 84.8% 83.3% 124 / 140 88.6% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 174 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Gastelum L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Story L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1052 / 2613 40.3% 39.5% 395 / 1173 33.7% 39.0%
In the clinch 102 / 153 66.7% 70.9% 94 / 165 57.0% 68.9%
On the ground 68 / 97 70.1% 69.0% 26 / 36 72.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 768 / 2234 34.4% 37.9% 336 / 1118 30.1% 35.6%
To the body 274 / 406 67.5% 71.3% 108 / 168 64.3% 69.6%
To the legs 180 / 223 80.7% 82.1% 71 / 88 80.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2435.3% acc · 1.04/15 · norm 1.42
Takedowns landed
4048.2% acc · 2.53/15 · norm 1.27
5560.4% def · norm 63.1%
Takedowns stopped
4863.2% def · norm 63.9%
47:1513.6% of cage time · norm 19.75%
Control time
74:5431.6% of cage time · norm 18.5%
51:252:13 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control
39:212:29 per 15 · norm 3:15
20.09/15 · norm 0.47
Submission attempts
140.89/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gastelum has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.