BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Keita Nakamura vs.
Tom Breese

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-7-0 Keita Nakamura · UFC
5-3-0 Tom Breese · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-7-0
UFC record
5-3-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
42.2
AgeΔ 7.3 yrs
34.9
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
73"
ReachΔ 0"
73"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
87.5
Layoff (months)Δ 21 mo
66.5
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Tom Breese carries real power — 1.07 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Tom Breese is a submission threat — 1.07 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.47 Middleweight norm.
Keita Nakamura hunts takedowns — 1.72 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Keita Nakamura

Full career not yet synced for Keita Nakamura — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.4 wins over .500

Tom Breese

Full career not yet synced for Tom Breese — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3372.14/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
1883.34/min · norm 3.25
5243.33/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
1582.81/min · norm 3.20
35.7%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
50.9%norm 47.4%
57.6%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
60.5%norm 53.8%
40.38/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
41.07/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Keita Nakamura

Distance 88.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 5.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.7% (norm 8.1%)

Tom Breese

Distance 81.3% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 8.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 10.0% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Keita Nakamura

Head 87.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.7% (norm 8.4%)

Tom Breese

Head 76.4% (norm 78.0%) · Body 19.5% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nakamura L/AAccWelterweight med Breese L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 267 / 834 32.0% 38.6% 139 / 300 46.3% 40.5%
In the clinch 37 / 56 66.1% 67.8% 25 / 32 78.1% 70.3%
On the ground 33 / 54 61.1% 67.2% 24 / 37 64.9% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 267 / 830 32.2% 37.2% 126 / 282 44.7% 38.9%
To the body 49 / 79 62.0% 70.7% 49 / 72 68.1% 71.7%
To the legs 21 / 35 60.0% 82.9% 13 / 15 too few to rate 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nakamura L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Breese L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 379 / 994 38.1% 39.0% 98 / 311 31.5% 39.5%
In the clinch 76 / 114 66.7% 68.9% 19 / 29 65.5% 70.9%
On the ground 69 / 129 53.5% 68.0% 41 / 60 68.3% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 346 / 1016 34.1% 35.6% 105 / 320 32.8% 37.9%
To the body 104 / 141 73.8% 69.6% 31 / 47 66.0% 71.3%
To the legs 74 / 80 92.5% 82.1% 22 / 33 66.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1851.4% acc · 1.72/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.42
2363.9% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
1270.6% def · norm 63.1%
23:4415.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
8:5515.8% of cage time · norm 19.75%
33:303:11 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
14:193:48 per 15 · norm 3:00
40.38/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
41.07/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nakamura has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.