BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Keita Nakamura vs.
Rob Emerson

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-7-0 Keita Nakamura · UFC
3-3-0 (1 NC) Rob Emerson · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-7-0
UFC record
3-3-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
42.2
AgeΔ 2.8 yrs
45
5'11"
HeightΔ 2"
5'9"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
87.5
Layoff (months)Δ 108.7 mo
196.2
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Rob Emerson carries real power — 0.40 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Rob Emerson hunts takedowns — 2.02 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Keita Nakamura hunts takedowns — 1.72 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Keita Nakamura

Full career not yet synced for Keita Nakamura — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 3-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.4 wins over .500

Rob Emerson

Full career not yet synced for Rob Emerson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.4 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3372.14/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
1852.50/min · norm 3.42
5243.33/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
2102.83/min · norm 3.37
35.7%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
30.7%norm 43.5%
57.6%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
64.8%norm 56.3%
40.38/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
20.40/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Keita Nakamura

Distance 88.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 5.9% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 5.7% (norm 8.1%)

Rob Emerson

Distance 86.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 5.6% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Keita Nakamura

Head 87.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.7% (norm 8.4%)

Rob Emerson

Head 84.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 4.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nakamura L/AAccWelterweight med Emerson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 267 / 834 32.0% 38.6% 138 / 519 26.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 37 / 56 66.1% 67.8% 27 / 49 55.1% 67.3%
On the ground 33 / 54 61.1% 67.2% 20 / 34 58.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 267 / 830 32.2% 37.2% 104 / 508 20.5% 35.0%
To the body 49 / 79 62.0% 70.7% 21 / 28 75.0% 69.1%
To the legs 21 / 35 60.0% 82.9% 60 / 66 90.9% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nakamura L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Emerson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 379 / 994 38.1% 39.0% 130 / 455 28.6% 38.9%
In the clinch 76 / 114 66.7% 68.9% 37 / 59 62.7% 68.6%
On the ground 69 / 129 53.5% 68.0% 43 / 83 51.8% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 346 / 1016 34.1% 35.6% 130 / 495 26.3% 35.1%
To the body 104 / 141 73.8% 69.6% 42 / 56 75.0% 68.1%
To the legs 74 / 80 92.5% 82.1% 38 / 46 82.6% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1851.4% acc · 1.72/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1052.6% acc · 2.02/15 · norm 1.38
2363.9% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
2565.8% def · norm 64.0%
23:4415.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
11:0515.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
33:303:11 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
21:534:25 per 15 · norm 2:46
40.38/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
20.40/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nakamura has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.