BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Katlyn Cerminara vs.
Valentina Shevchenko

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

11-6-0 Katlyn Cerminara · UFC
15-3-1 Valentina Shevchenko · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

11-6-0
UFC record
15-3-1
Women's Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Flyweight
37.6
AgeΔ 0.8 yrs
38.4
5'9"
HeightΔ 4"
5'5"
68"
ReachΔ 2"
66"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
28.9
Layoff (months)Δ 20.2 mo
8.7
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWDL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Valentina Shevchenko hunts takedowns — 2.65 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.02 Women's Flyweight norm.
Katlyn Cerminara rarely shoots — 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.02 Women's Flyweight norm.
Valentina Shevchenko owns the mat — in control 31% of cage time, vs a 19% Women's Flyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Katlyn Cerminara

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 116
Tier 3 — regional circuit 70

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.13 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 3 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Valentina Shevchenko

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 153
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.56 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11044.58/min · norm 3.91
Sig. strikes landed
11003.04/min · norm 3.91
10804.48/min · norm 3.81
Sig. strikes absorbed
7262.00/min · norm 3.81
34.9%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
52.6%norm 44.9%
62.3%norm 55.95%
Striking defense
63.5%norm 55.95%
10.06/15 · norm 0.09
Knockdowns
20.08/15 · norm 0.09

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Katlyn Cerminara

Distance 93.9% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 3.9% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 2.2% (norm 4.9%)

Valentina Shevchenko

Distance 81.0% (norm 87.6%) · Clinch 7.4% (norm 7.3%) · Ground 11.6% (norm 4.9%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Katlyn Cerminara

Head 79.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 13.8% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 6.4% (norm 7.7%)

Valentina Shevchenko

Head 76.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 10.6% (norm 14.2%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Cerminara L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med Shevchenko L/AAccWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 960 / 2967 32.4% 39.9% 790 / 1693 46.7% 39.9%
In the clinch 86 / 123 69.9% 73.3% 104 / 155 67.1% 73.3%
On the ground 58 / 69 84.1% 74.7% 206 / 242 85.1% 74.7%
BY TARGET
To the head 677 / 2520 26.9% 34.9% 722 / 1590 45.4% 34.9%
To the body 269 / 437 61.6% 69.5% 150 / 221 67.9% 69.5%
To the legs 158 / 202 78.2% 82.6% 228 / 279 81.7% 82.6%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters · Women's Flyweight: 46 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Cerminara L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med vs Shevchenko L/AOpp accWomen's Flyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 942 / 2687 35.1% 38.8% 529 / 1739 30.4% 38.8%
In the clinch 98 / 129 76.0% 74.1% 153 / 183 83.6% 74.1%
On the ground 40 / 47 85.1% 73.4% 44 / 69 63.8% 73.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 563 / 2131 26.4% 35.3% 265 / 1251 21.2% 35.3%
To the body 186 / 325 57.2% 69.0% 215 / 351 61.3% 69.0%
To the legs 331 / 407 81.3% 78.7% 246 / 389 63.2% 78.7%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

515.6% acc · 0.31/15 · norm 1.02
Takedowns landed
6461.5% acc · 2.65/15 · norm 1.02
2650.0% def · norm 58.95%
Takedowns stopped
4276.4% def · norm 58.95%
19:007.9% of cage time · norm 19.15%
Control time
113:4931.4% of cage time · norm 19.15%
38:452:24 per 15 · norm 3:03
Time under control
51:082:07 per 15 · norm 3:03
50.31/15 · norm 0.32
Submission attempts
70.29/15 · norm 0.32

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Shevchenko has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.