BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Justin Scoggins vs.
Said Nurmagomedov

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-5-0 Justin Scoggins · UFC
7-4-0 Said Nurmagomedov · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-5-0
UFC record
7-4-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
34.3
AgeΔ 0 yrs
34.3
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
66"
ReachΔ 4"
70"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
96.7
Layoff (months)Δ 84.3 mo
12.4
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Said Nurmagomedov is a submission threat — 1.15 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Bantamweight norm.
Justin Scoggins hunts takedowns — 3.42 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Justin Scoggins owns the mat — in control 36% of cage time, vs a 17% Flyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Justin Scoggins

Full career not yet synced for Justin Scoggins — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

Said Nurmagomedov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 74
Tier 3 — regional circuit 111

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.25 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 23 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3593.56/min · norm 3.49
Sig. strikes landed
3213.08/min · norm 3.52
2182.16/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed
2142.05/min · norm 3.58
51.7%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
48.6%norm 43.4%
55.7%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
55.6%norm 56.6%
10.15/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
20.29/15 · norm 0.30

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Justin Scoggins

Distance 75.9% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 6.6% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 17.4% (norm 7.3%)

Said Nurmagomedov

Distance 84.1% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 9.5% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 6.4% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Justin Scoggins

Head 74.4% (norm 75.9%) · Body 17.3% (norm 13.3%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 9.3%)

Said Nurmagomedov

Head 71.7% (norm 77.4%) · Body 16.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.0% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Scoggins L/AAccFlyweight med Nurmagomedov L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 222 / 527 42.1% 40.0% 244 / 556 43.9% 39.0%
In the clinch 38 / 46 82.6% 70.4% 46 / 63 73.0% 68.7%
On the ground 99 / 121 81.8% 69.7% 31 / 42 73.8% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 236 / 516 45.7% 37.6% 173 / 474 36.5% 34.9%
To the body 74 / 120 61.7% 68.5% 79 / 108 73.1% 66.8%
To the legs 49 / 58 84.5% 80.0% 69 / 79 87.3% 79.4%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Bantamweight: 117 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Scoggins L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Nurmagomedov L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 144 / 390 36.9% 40.1% 155 / 388 39.9% 39.3%
In the clinch 42 / 57 73.7% 68.8% 32 / 44 72.7% 70.4%
On the ground 32 / 45 71.1% 71.1% 27 / 50 54.0% 72.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 119 / 338 35.2% 35.2% 89 / 294 30.3% 34.9%
To the body 58 / 89 65.2% 68.2% 52 / 91 57.1% 66.0%
To the legs 41 / 65 63.1% 80.3% 73 / 97 75.3% 79.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2363.9% acc · 3.42/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
615.4% acc · 0.86/15 · norm 1.12
3382.5% def · norm 62.5%
Takedowns stopped
2463.2% def · norm 66.7%
36:3436.3% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
11:4711.3% of cage time · norm 17.4%
13:081:57 per 15 · norm 2:44
Time under control
38:035:28 per 15 · norm 2:24
30.45/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
81.15/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nurmagomedov has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.