BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Justin Salas vs.
Jason Saggo

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-4-0 Justin Salas · UFC
3-3-0 Jason Saggo · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-4-0
UFC record
3-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44.4
AgeΔ 3.7 yrs
40.7
5'8"
HeightΔ 3"
5'11"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
125
Layoff (months)Δ 18.4 mo
106.6
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Justin Salas's takedown defense leaks — 0% stopped, vs a 64% Lightweight norm.
Justin Salas hunts takedowns — 2.43 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Jason Saggo hunts takedowns — 2.33 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Justin Salas

Full career not yet synced for Justin Salas — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.1 wins over .500

Jason Saggo

Full career not yet synced for Jason Saggo — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1693.42/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
1612.50/min · norm 3.42
1462.96/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1892.94/min · norm 3.37
43.2%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
39.8%norm 43.5%
68.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.2%norm 56.3%
10.30/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.23/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Justin Salas

Distance 81.6% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 11.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 6.6% (norm 8.0%)

Jason Saggo

Distance 77.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 19.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Justin Salas

Head 74.2% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.6% (norm 7.9%)

Jason Saggo

Head 71.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 16.3% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Salas L/AAccLightweight med Saggo L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 113 / 319 35.4% 37.9% 102 / 313 32.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 35 / 46 76.1% 67.3% 6 / 12 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 21 / 26 80.8% 69.1% 53 / 80 66.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 97 / 290 33.4% 35.0% 90 / 289 31.1% 35.0%
To the body 34 / 48 70.8% 69.1% 25 / 50 50.0% 69.1%
To the legs 38 / 53 71.7% 81.9% 46 / 66 69.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Salas L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Saggo L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 86 / 382 22.5% 38.9% 116 / 281 41.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 25 / 35 71.4% 68.6% 24 / 37 64.9% 68.6%
On the ground 35 / 53 66.0% 68.0% 49 / 77 63.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 97 / 375 25.9% 35.1% 137 / 324 42.3% 35.1%
To the body 35 / 72 48.6% 68.1% 28 / 37 75.7% 68.1%
To the legs 14 / 23 too few to rate 81.5% 24 / 34 70.6% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

820.5% acc · 2.43/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1040.0% acc · 2.33/15 · norm 1.38
00.0% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
323.1% def · norm 64.0%
7:0014.2% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
17:4127.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
4:061:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
13:283:08 per 15 · norm 2:46
00.00/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Salas has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.