Justin Buchholz vs.
Jeremy Stephens
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Justin Buchholz
Full career not yet synced for Justin Buchholz — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.2 wins over .500
Jeremy Stephens
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 16 | 22 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 13 | 1 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 53 documented bouts
In the UFC: 8-17 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Justin Buchholz
Distance 76.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 14.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 8.0%)
Jeremy Stephens
Distance 84.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Justin Buchholz
Head 85.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 7.9%)
Jeremy Stephens
Head 77.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.1% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Buchholz L/A | Acc | Lightweight med | Stephens L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 56 / 256 | 21.9% | 37.9% | 942 / 2637 | 35.7% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 23 / 49 | 46.9% | 67.3% | 126 / 175 | 72.0% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 10 / 30 | 33.3% | 69.1% | 213 / 326 | 65.3% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 63 / 285 | 22.1% | 35.0% | 752 / 2420 | 31.1% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 14 / 24 | too few to rate | 69.1% | 222 / 307 | 72.3% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 12 / 26 | 46.2% | 81.9% | 307 / 411 | 74.7% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Buchholz L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med | vs Stephens L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 96 / 220 | 43.6% | 38.9% | 1035 / 2709 | 38.2% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 36 / 57 | 63.2% | 68.6% | 113 / 165 | 68.5% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 25 / 46 | 54.3% | 68.0% | 179 / 278 | 64.4% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 112 / 266 | 42.1% | 35.1% | 812 / 2468 | 32.9% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 20 / 30 | 66.7% | 68.1% | 238 / 349 | 68.2% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 25 / 27 | 92.6% | 81.5% | 277 / 335 | 82.7% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Stephens has more cage time on record.