BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Junior Dos Santos vs.
Roy Nelson

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

15-8-0 Junior Dos Santos · UFC
9-10-0 Roy Nelson · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

15-8-0
UFC record
9-10-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
42
AgeΔ 8 yrs
50
6'4"
HeightΔ 4"
6'0"
77"
ReachΔ 4"
73"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
67.8
Layoff (months)Δ 43.9 mo
111.7
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Junior Dos Santos carries real power — 0.85 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Heavyweight norm.
Roy Nelson carries real power — 0.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Heavyweight norm.
Junior Dos Santos rarely shoots — 0.30 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.95 Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Junior Dos Santos

Full career not yet synced for Junior Dos Santos — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 11-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.9 wins over .500

Roy Nelson

Full career not yet synced for Roy Nelson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11094.49/min · norm 3.36
Sig. strikes landed
4392.17/min · norm 3.36
8233.33/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed
9854.86/min · norm 3.19
47.9%norm 47.8%
Striking accuracy
37.3%norm 47.8%
56.2%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
45.6%norm 52.5%
140.85/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
90.67/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Junior Dos Santos

Distance 87.9% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 5.1% (norm 9.3%)

Roy Nelson

Distance 82.5% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 13.0% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.5% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Junior Dos Santos

Head 73.2% (norm 79.2%) · Body 24.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 2.6% (norm 7.6%)

Roy Nelson

Head 89.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.3% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Santos L/AAccHeavyweight med Nelson L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 942 / 2032 46.4% 40.1% 315 / 970 32.5% 40.1%
In the clinch 94 / 162 58.0% 70.6% 83 / 153 54.2% 70.6%
On the ground 73 / 119 61.3% 70.2% 41 / 53 77.4% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 682 / 1693 40.3% 38.9% 341 / 1048 32.5% 38.9%
To the body 378 / 560 67.5% 76.8% 53 / 74 71.6% 76.8%
To the legs 49 / 60 81.7% 87.8% 45 / 54 83.3% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Santos L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Nelson L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 583 / 1530 38.1% 40.7% 710 / 1438 49.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 159 / 236 67.4% 70.6% 259 / 354 73.2% 70.6%
On the ground 81 / 114 71.1% 72.0% 16 / 18 too few to rate 72.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 552 / 1544 35.8% 38.8% 640 / 1402 45.6% 38.8%
To the body 105 / 141 74.5% 75.1% 237 / 293 80.9% 75.1%
To the legs 166 / 195 85.1% 84.4% 108 / 115 93.9% 84.4%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

550.0% acc · 0.30/15 · norm 0.95
Takedowns landed
1629.6% acc · 1.18/15 · norm 0.95
7281.8% def · norm 64.3%
Takedowns stopped
2064.5% def · norm 64.3%
7:363.1% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
41:0420.3% of cage time · norm 17.2%
39:482:25 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control
24:411:49 per 15 · norm 2:28
10.06/15 · norm 0.16
Submission attempts
10.07/15 · norm 0.16

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Santos has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.