BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Josh Shockley vs.
Jason Saggo

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

0-2-0 Josh Shockley · UFC
3-3-0 Jason Saggo · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

0-2-0
UFC record
3-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
36
AgeΔ 4 yrs
40
6'1"
HeightΔ 2"
5'11"
Reach
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
137.4
Layoff (months)Δ 30.8 mo
106.6
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Josh Shockley rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Jason Saggo hunts takedowns — 2.33 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Jason Saggo's takedown defense leaks — 23% stopped, vs a 64% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Josh Shockley

Full career not yet synced for Josh Shockley — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Jason Saggo

Full career not yet synced for Jason Saggo — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

281.40/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
1612.50/min · norm 3.42
351.75/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1892.94/min · norm 3.37
33.3%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
39.8%norm 43.5%
60.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.2%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.23/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Josh Shockley

Distance 69.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 23.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 7.1% (norm 8.0%)

Jason Saggo

Distance 77.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 19.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Josh Shockley

Head 77.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 20.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 2.4% (norm 7.9%)

Jason Saggo

Head 71.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 16.3% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Shockley L/AAccLightweight med Saggo L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 17 / 58 29.3% 37.9% 102 / 313 32.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 8 / 20 too few to rate 67.3% 6 / 12 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 3 / 6 too few to rate 69.1% 53 / 80 66.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 20 / 65 30.8% 35.0% 90 / 289 31.1% 35.0%
To the body 7 / 17 too few to rate 69.1% 25 / 50 50.0% 69.1%
To the legs 1 / 2 too few to rate 81.9% 46 / 66 69.7% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Shockley L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Saggo L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 20 / 62 32.3% 38.9% 116 / 281 41.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 6 / 7 too few to rate 68.6% 24 / 37 64.9% 68.6%
On the ground 9 / 19 too few to rate 68.0% 49 / 77 63.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 19 / 61 31.1% 35.1% 137 / 324 42.3% 35.1%
To the body 10 / 19 too few to rate 68.1% 28 / 37 75.7% 68.1%
To the legs 6 / 8 too few to rate 81.5% 24 / 34 70.6% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1040.0% acc · 2.33/15 · norm 1.38
861.5% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
323.1% def · norm 64.0%
1:549.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
17:4127.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
9:477:21 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
13:283:08 per 15 · norm 2:46
10.75/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Saggo has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.