BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Johnny Case vs.
Francisco Trevino

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-2-0 Johnny Case · UFC
1-2-0 Francisco Trevino · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-2-0
UFC record
1-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 7 yrs
44
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
72"
ReachΔ 2"
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
109.4
Layoff (months)Δ 20.7 mo
130.1
LLWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Johnny Case carries real power — 0.38 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Francisco Trevino is wasteful with body shots — only 41% land, vs a 69% Lightweight norm.
Francisco Trevino's takedown defense leaks — 41% stopped, vs a 64% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Johnny Case

Full career not yet synced for Johnny Case — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Francisco Trevino

Full career not yet synced for Francisco Trevino — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3133.95/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
822.65/min · norm 3.42
2112.66/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
752.42/min · norm 3.37
38.8%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
42.5%norm 43.5%
61.4%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
64.3%norm 56.3%
20.38/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Johnny Case

Distance 85.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 4.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.9% (norm 8.0%)

Francisco Trevino

Distance 80.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 14.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Johnny Case

Head 76.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 7.9%)

Francisco Trevino

Head 61.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 14.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 24.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Case L/AAccLightweight med Trevino L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 233 / 686 34.0% 37.9% 56 / 156 35.9% 37.9%
In the clinch 19 / 32 59.4% 67.3% 20 / 28 71.4% 67.3%
On the ground 61 / 88 69.3% 69.1% 6 / 9 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 187 / 618 30.3% 35.0% 38 / 118 32.2% 35.0%
To the body 69 / 112 61.6% 69.1% 11 / 27 40.7% 69.1%
To the legs 57 / 76 75.0% 81.9% 33 / 48 68.8% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Case L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Trevino L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 191 / 514 37.2% 38.9% 43 / 156 27.6% 38.9%
In the clinch 12 / 22 too few to rate 68.6% 19 / 35 54.3% 68.6%
On the ground 8 / 11 too few to rate 68.0% 13 / 19 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 131 / 437 30.0% 35.1% 54 / 177 30.5% 35.1%
To the body 24 / 46 52.2% 68.1% 13 / 23 too few to rate 68.1%
To the legs 56 / 64 87.5% 81.5% 8 / 10 too few to rate 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

945.0% acc · 1.70/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
222.2% acc · 0.97/15 · norm 1.38
1672.7% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
741.2% def · norm 64.0%
19:1724.3% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
4:1113.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
11:172:08 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
10:034:52 per 15 · norm 2:46
10.19/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Case has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.