BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Joe Moreira vs.
Paul Varelans

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-1-0 Joe Moreira · UFC
4-4-0 Paul Varelans · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-1-0
UFC record
4-4-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Open Weight
Age
5'11"
HeightΔ 9"
6'8"
Reach
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
348.3
Layoff (months)Δ 7.6 mo
355.9
WL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Joe Moreira is hard to hit — absorbs 0.56 sig. strikes per minute, vs a 3.37 Lightweight norm.
Joe Moreira hunts takedowns — 2.50 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Paul Varelans defends clinch strikes well — opponents land just 24%, vs a 67% Open Weight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Joe Moreira

Full career not yet synced for Joe Moreira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Paul Varelans

Full career not yet synced for Paul Varelans — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.6 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

191.06/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
561.46/min · norm 1.46
100.56/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
792.05/min · norm 1.68
51.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
43.8%norm 45.8%
76.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
49.7%norm 49.0%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.39/15 · norm 0.00

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Joe Moreira

Distance 48.6% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 29.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 21.6% (norm 8.0%)

Paul Varelans

Distance 54.7% (norm 50.2%) · Clinch 28.1% (norm 14.9%) · Ground 17.2% (norm 28.7%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Joe Moreira

Head 59.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 5.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 35.1% (norm 7.9%)

Paul Varelans

Head 81.2% (norm 81.2%) · Body 6.2% (norm 8.0%) · Legs 12.5% (norm 5.2%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Moreira L/AAccLightweight med Varelans L/AAccOpen Weight med
BY POSITION
At distance 9 / 18 too few to rate 37.9% 17 / 70 24.3% 27.8%
In the clinch 3 / 11 too few to rate 67.3% 21 / 36 58.3% 63.8%
On the ground 7 / 8 too few to rate 69.1% 18 / 22 too few to rate 65.8%
BY TARGET
To the head 12 / 22 too few to rate 35.0% 40 / 104 38.5% 39.3%
To the body 2 / 2 too few to rate 69.1% 6 / 8 too few to rate 90.5%
To the legs 5 / 13 too few to rate 81.9% 10 / 16 too few to rate 53.5%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Open Weight: 11 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Moreira L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Varelans L/AOpp accOpen Weight med
BY POSITION
At distance 7 / 33 21.2% 38.9% 44 / 83 53.0% 37.0%
In the clinch 3 / 10 too few to rate 68.6% 9 / 37 24.3% 66.7%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.0% 26 / 37 70.3% 67.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 6 / 37 16.2% 35.1% 46 / 101 45.5% 47.0%
To the body 0 / 1 too few to rate 68.1% 3 / 7 too few to rate 87.9%
To the legs 4 / 5 too few to rate 81.5% 30 / 49 61.2% 61.2%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

350.0% acc · 2.50/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
2100.0% acc · 0.78/15 · norm 1.15
0— def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
777.8% def · norm 66.7%
— of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
— of cage time · norm 21.95%
— per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
— per 15 · norm 0:39
00.00/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
31.17/15 · norm 1.34

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Varelans has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.