BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Joe Ellenberger vs.
Bryan Barberena

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

1-1-0 Joe Ellenberger · UFC
9-10-0 Bryan Barberena · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

1-1-0
UFC record
9-10-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
41.4
AgeΔ 4.1 yrs
37.3
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
72"
ReachΔ 0"
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
139.8
Layoff (months)Δ 111.1 mo
28.7
LW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Joe Ellenberger hunts takedowns — 3.17 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Joe Ellenberger is a submission threat — 1.06 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Bryan Barberena rarely shoots — 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Joe Ellenberger

Full career not yet synced for Joe Ellenberger — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Bryan Barberena

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 910
Tier 3 — regional circuit 92

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.74 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

461.62/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
11915.35/min · norm 3.17
983.45/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
10224.59/min · norm 3.06
47.4%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
48.0%norm 44.9%
48.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
44.2%norm 55.25%
00.00/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
60.40/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Joe Ellenberger

Distance 54.6% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 26.8% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 18.6% (norm 8.0%)

Bryan Barberena

Distance 83.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 11.8% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 4.9% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Joe Ellenberger

Head 81.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 14.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 7.9%)

Bryan Barberena

Head 80.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.7% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ellenberger L/AAccLightweight med Barberena L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 18 / 53 34.0% 37.9% 897 / 2065 43.4% 38.6%
In the clinch 14 / 26 53.8% 67.3% 202 / 293 68.9% 67.8%
On the ground 14 / 18 too few to rate 69.1% 92 / 121 76.0% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 30 / 79 38.0% 35.0% 833 / 1997 41.7% 37.2%
To the body 12 / 14 too few to rate 69.1% 158 / 216 73.1% 70.7%
To the legs 4 / 4 too few to rate 81.9% 200 / 266 75.2% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ellenberger L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Barberena L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 43 / 98 43.9% 38.9% 804 / 1546 52.0% 39.0%
In the clinch 11 / 24 too few to rate 68.6% 158 / 212 74.5% 68.9%
On the ground 44 / 67 65.7% 68.0% 60 / 73 82.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 81 / 169 47.9% 35.1% 656 / 1392 47.1% 35.6%
To the body 11 / 11 too few to rate 68.1% 269 / 333 80.8% 69.6%
To the legs 6 / 9 too few to rate 81.5% 97 / 106 91.5% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

640.0% acc · 3.17/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
222.2% acc · 0.13/15 · norm 1.27
0— def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
6250.0% def · norm 63.9%
8:4831.0% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
17:197.8% of cage time · norm 18.5%
7:273:56 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
66:314:28 per 15 · norm 3:15
21.06/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
40.27/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Barberena has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.