BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Jim Miller vs.
Donald Cerrone

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

28-18-0 (1 NC) Jim Miller · UFC
23-14-0 (1 NC) Donald Cerrone · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

28-18-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
23-14-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
42.9
AgeΔ 0.5 yrs
43.4
5'8"
HeightΔ 5"
6'1"
71"
ReachΔ 2"
73"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 46.2 mo
49.1
WLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLNCLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Jim Miller is a submission threat — 1.72 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Donald Cerrone carries real power — 0.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Donald Cerrone absorbs 5.11 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Jim Miller

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2818
Tier 3 — regional circuit 111

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.25 · 28 tier-1/2 wins · 29 finish wins over 59 documented bouts

In the UFC: 16-17 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.4 wins over .500

Donald Cerrone

Full career not yet synced for Donald Cerrone — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 20-13 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13222.92/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
17484.90/min · norm 3.42
15543.43/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
18255.11/min · norm 3.37
42.1%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
47.4%norm 43.5%
56.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
51.6%norm 56.3%
60.20/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
200.84/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jim Miller

Distance 81.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.7% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 8.0%)

Donald Cerrone

Distance 89.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jim Miller

Head 77.5% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.6% (norm 7.9%)

Donald Cerrone

Head 71.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Miller L/AAccLightweight med Cerrone L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 945 / 2547 37.1% 37.9% 1478 / 3290 44.9% 37.9%
In the clinch 194 / 303 64.0% 67.3% 151 / 229 65.9% 67.3%
On the ground 183 / 287 63.8% 69.1% 119 / 172 69.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 775 / 2431 31.9% 35.0% 893 / 2630 34.0% 35.0%
To the body 266 / 372 71.5% 69.1% 442 / 589 75.0% 69.1%
To the legs 281 / 334 84.1% 81.9% 413 / 472 87.5% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Miller L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Cerrone L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1185 / 3031 39.1% 38.9% 1558 / 3375 46.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 174 / 255 68.2% 68.6% 211 / 305 69.2% 68.6%
On the ground 195 / 307 63.5% 68.0% 56 / 88 63.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 1055 / 2895 36.4% 35.1% 1069 / 2721 39.3% 35.1%
To the body 351 / 496 70.8% 68.1% 444 / 668 66.5% 68.1%
To the legs 148 / 202 73.3% 81.5% 312 / 379 82.3% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

4545.0% acc · 1.49/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
2428.9% acc · 1.01/15 · norm 1.38
5047.6% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
6288.6% def · norm 64.0%
94:1220.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
38:3610.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
121:424:01 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
19:550:50 per 15 · norm 2:46
521.72/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
110.46/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Miller has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.