BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Jeremy Stephens vs.
Renan Barao

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

15-20-0 (1 NC) Jeremy Stephens · UFC
9-8-0 Renan Barao · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

15-20-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
9-8-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
40
AgeΔ 1 yrs
39
5'9"
HeightΔ 3"
5'6"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 77.8 mo
80.7
LLLLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Jeremy Stephens carries real power — 0.66 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Renan Barao hunts takedowns — 1.53 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Jeremy Stephens

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1622
Tier 3 — regional circuit 131

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 53 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-17 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.5 wins over .500

Renan Barao

Full career not yet synced for Renan Barao — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 5-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12813.13/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
9223.92/min · norm 3.52
13273.25/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
9574.07/min · norm 3.58
40.8%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
36.8%norm 43.4%
57.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
58.0%norm 56.6%
180.66/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
40.25/15 · norm 0.30

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jeremy Stephens

Distance 84.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 8.0%)

Renan Barao

Distance 90.9% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 5.7%) · Ground 2.8% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jeremy Stephens

Head 77.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.1% (norm 7.9%)

Renan Barao

Head 75.5% (norm 77.4%) · Body 15.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.5% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Stephens L/AAccLightweight med Barao L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 942 / 2637 35.7% 37.9% 772 / 2279 33.9% 39.0%
In the clinch 126 / 175 72.0% 67.3% 107 / 160 66.9% 68.7%
On the ground 213 / 326 65.3% 69.1% 43 / 69 62.3% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 752 / 2420 31.1% 35.0% 538 / 1893 28.4% 34.9%
To the body 222 / 307 72.3% 69.1% 211 / 376 56.1% 66.8%
To the legs 307 / 411 74.7% 81.9% 173 / 239 72.4% 79.4%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Bantamweight: 117 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Stephens L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Barao L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1035 / 2709 38.2% 38.9% 816 / 2086 39.1% 39.3%
In the clinch 113 / 165 68.5% 68.6% 84 / 119 70.6% 70.4%
On the ground 179 / 278 64.4% 68.0% 57 / 74 77.0% 72.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 812 / 2468 32.9% 35.1% 654 / 1854 35.3% 34.9%
To the body 238 / 349 68.2% 68.1% 178 / 270 65.9% 66.0%
To the legs 277 / 335 82.7% 81.5% 125 / 155 80.6% 79.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

3038.5% acc · 1.10/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
2440.7% acc · 1.53/15 · norm 1.12
7861.9% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
3792.5% def · norm 66.7%
71:3117.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
36:5915.7% of cage time · norm 17.4%
91:283:21 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
28:001:47 per 15 · norm 2:24
110.40/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
50.32/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Stephens has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.