BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Jason Saggo vs.
Paul Felder

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

3-3-0 Jason Saggo · UFC
9-6-0 Paul Felder · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

3-3-0
UFC record
9-6-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
40
AgeΔ 2 yrs
42
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
106.6
Layoff (months)Δ 37.9 mo
68.7
LLWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Paul Felder rarely shoots — 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Jason Saggo hunts takedowns — 2.33 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Jason Saggo's takedown defense leaks — 23% stopped, vs a 64% Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Jason Saggo

Full career not yet synced for Jason Saggo — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Paul Felder

Full career not yet synced for Paul Felder — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.5 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1612.50/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
7633.70/min · norm 3.42
1892.94/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
7093.44/min · norm 3.37
39.8%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
44.6%norm 43.5%
52.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
48.8%norm 56.3%
10.23/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
30.22/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jason Saggo

Distance 77.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 19.8% (norm 8.0%)

Paul Felder

Distance 82.2% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 9.6% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 8.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jason Saggo

Head 71.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 16.3% (norm 7.9%)

Paul Felder

Head 75.7% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 11.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Saggo L/AAccLightweight med Felder L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 102 / 313 32.6% 37.9% 557 / 1406 39.6% 37.9%
In the clinch 6 / 12 too few to rate 67.3% 110 / 165 66.7% 67.3%
On the ground 53 / 80 66.2% 69.1% 96 / 139 69.1% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 90 / 289 31.1% 35.0% 449 / 1294 34.7% 35.0%
To the body 25 / 50 50.0% 69.1% 149 / 213 70.0% 69.1%
To the legs 46 / 66 69.7% 81.9% 165 / 203 81.3% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Saggo L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Felder L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 116 / 281 41.3% 38.9% 596 / 1218 48.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 24 / 37 64.9% 68.6% 81 / 116 69.8% 68.6%
On the ground 49 / 77 63.6% 68.0% 32 / 50 64.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 137 / 324 42.3% 35.1% 354 / 928 38.1% 35.1%
To the body 28 / 37 75.7% 68.1% 185 / 247 74.9% 68.1%
To the legs 24 / 34 70.6% 81.5% 170 / 209 81.3% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1040.0% acc · 2.33/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
428.6% acc · 0.29/15 · norm 1.38
323.1% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
4864.9% def · norm 64.0%
17:4127.5% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
25:3212.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
13:283:08 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
52:043:47 per 15 · norm 2:46
00.00/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
30.22/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Felder has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.