Matchup deep-dive

James Head vs.
Brian Ebersole

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

2-3-0 James Head · UFC
5-3-0 Brian Ebersole · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

2-3-0
UFC record
5-3-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
42
AgeΔ 3 yrs
45
6'1"
HeightΔ 1"
6'0"
73"
ReachΔ 0"
73"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
155.3
Layoff (months)Δ 21.3 mo
134
LLWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

James Head is a submission threat — 0.82 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Brian Ebersole owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
James Head rarely shoots — 0.41 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

James Head

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 23
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.75 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Brian Ebersole

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 54
Tier 3 — regional circuit 4614

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.62 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 34 finish wins over 71 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1012.75/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
2412.42/min · norm 3.17
1143.11/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
2352.36/min · norm 3.06
48.6%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
49.0%norm 44.9%
49.8%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
56.7%norm 55.25%
10.41/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
10.15/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

James Head

Distance 71.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 26.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 2.4% (norm 8.1%)

Brian Ebersole

Distance 71.5% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 13.0% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 15.4% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

James Head

Head 79.8% (norm 78.2%) · Body 18.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 1.9% (norm 8.4%)

Brian Ebersole

Head 67.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 15.0% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 17.7% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Head L/AAccWelterweight med Ebersole L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 54 / 149 36.2% 38.6% 142 / 352 40.3% 38.6%
In the clinch 43 / 54 79.6% 67.8% 42 / 64 65.6% 67.8%
On the ground 4 / 5 too few to rate 67.2% 57 / 76 75.0% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 66 / 166 39.8% 37.2% 142 / 331 42.9% 37.2%
To the body 32 / 38 84.2% 70.7% 40 / 74 54.1% 70.7%
To the legs 3 / 4 too few to rate 82.9% 59 / 87 67.8% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Head L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Ebersole L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 70 / 160 43.8% 39.0% 156 / 421 37.1% 39.0%
In the clinch 10 / 19 too few to rate 68.9% 70 / 112 62.5% 68.9%
On the ground 34 / 48 70.8% 68.0% 9 / 10 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 59 / 151 39.1% 35.6% 122 / 386 31.6% 35.6%
To the body 22 / 32 68.8% 69.6% 77 / 110 70.0% 69.6%
To the legs 33 / 44 75.0% 82.1% 36 / 47 76.6% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1100.0% acc · 0.41/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1018.9% acc · 1.51/15 · norm 1.27
1666.7% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
541.7% def · norm 63.9%
4:4613.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
33:2933.7% of cage time · norm 18.5%
14:516:04 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
15:222:19 per 15 · norm 3:15
20.82/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
10.15/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Ebersole has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.