Jake Ellenberger vs.
Rory MacDonald
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Jake Ellenberger
Full career not yet synced for Jake Ellenberger — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500
Rory MacDonald
Full career not yet synced for Rory MacDonald — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 8-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.3 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Jake Ellenberger
Distance 74.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 12.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 13.2% (norm 8.1%)
Rory MacDonald
Distance 83.9% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 6.1% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 10.1% (norm 8.1%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Jake Ellenberger
Head 86.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.4% (norm 8.4%)
Rory MacDonald
Head 82.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.5% (norm 8.4%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Ellenberger L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | MacDonald L/A | Acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 259 / 791 | 32.7% | 38.6% | 509 / 1317 | 38.6% | 38.6% |
| In the clinch | 83 / 129 | 64.3% | 67.8% | 55 / 95 | 57.9% | 67.8% |
| On the ground | 75 / 140 | 53.6% | 67.2% | 103 / 158 | 65.2% | 67.2% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 307 / 912 | 33.7% | 37.2% | 499 / 1302 | 38.3% | 37.2% |
| To the body | 72 / 101 | 71.3% | 70.7% | 125 / 213 | 58.7% | 70.7% |
| To the legs | 38 / 47 | 80.9% | 82.9% | 43 / 55 | 78.2% | 82.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Ellenberger L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs MacDonald L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 338 / 1002 | 33.7% | 39.0% | 370 / 1123 | 32.9% | 39.0% |
| In the clinch | 73 / 112 | 65.2% | 68.9% | 59 / 105 | 56.2% | 68.9% |
| On the ground | 67 / 102 | 65.7% | 68.0% | 70 / 101 | 69.3% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 314 / 986 | 31.8% | 35.6% | 323 / 1073 | 30.1% | 35.6% |
| To the body | 88 / 137 | 64.2% | 69.6% | 72 / 126 | 57.1% | 69.6% |
| To the legs | 76 / 93 | 81.7% | 82.1% | 104 / 130 | 80.0% | 82.1% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Ellenberger has more cage time on record.