BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Jake Ellenberger vs.
Robbie Lawler

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-11-0 Jake Ellenberger · UFC
15-10-0 Robbie Lawler · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-11-0
UFC record
15-10-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
41.4
AgeΔ 3 yrs
44.4
5'9"
HeightΔ 2"
5'11"
71"
ReachΔ 3"
74"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
95.4
Layoff (months)Δ 58.4 mo
37
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Jake Ellenberger carries real power — 0.98 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Robbie Lawler absorbs 5.18 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.06 Welterweight norm — hittable.
Jake Ellenberger hunts takedowns — 2.04 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Jake Ellenberger

Full career not yet synced for Jake Ellenberger — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Robbie Lawler

Full career not yet synced for Robbie Lawler — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4172.47/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
13344.19/min · norm 3.17
4782.83/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
16505.18/min · norm 3.06
39.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
48.3%norm 44.9%
60.7%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
58.3%norm 55.25%
110.98/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
100.47/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jake Ellenberger

Distance 74.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 12.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 13.2% (norm 8.1%)

Robbie Lawler

Distance 78.8% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 14.6% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 6.6% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jake Ellenberger

Head 86.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.4% (norm 8.4%)

Robbie Lawler

Head 85.9% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 2.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ellenberger L/AAccWelterweight med Lawler L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 259 / 791 32.7% 38.6% 927 / 2176 42.6% 38.6%
In the clinch 83 / 129 64.3% 67.8% 288 / 403 71.5% 67.8%
On the ground 75 / 140 53.6% 67.2% 119 / 181 65.7% 67.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 307 / 912 33.7% 37.2% 1012 / 2371 42.7% 37.2%
To the body 72 / 101 71.3% 70.7% 265 / 323 82.0% 70.7%
To the legs 38 / 47 80.9% 82.9% 57 / 66 86.4% 82.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Welterweight: 182 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ellenberger L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Lawler L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 338 / 1002 33.7% 39.0% 1319 / 3467 38.0% 39.0%
In the clinch 73 / 112 65.2% 68.9% 293 / 437 67.0% 68.9%
On the ground 67 / 102 65.7% 68.0% 38 / 53 71.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 314 / 986 31.8% 35.6% 1049 / 3155 33.2% 35.6%
To the body 88 / 137 64.2% 69.6% 332 / 468 70.9% 69.6%
To the legs 76 / 93 81.7% 82.1% 269 / 334 80.5% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2347.9% acc · 2.04/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1773.9% acc · 0.80/15 · norm 1.27
2586.2% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
7064.8% def · norm 63.9%
34:4320.5% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
32:0910.1% of cage time · norm 18.5%
19:501:45 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
56:212:39 per 15 · norm 3:15
40.36/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lawler has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.