BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Jake Ellenberger vs.
Kelvin Gastelum

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-11-0 Jake Ellenberger · UFC
14-11-0 (1 NC) Kelvin Gastelum · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-11-0
UFC record
14-11-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
41.4
AgeΔ 6.6 yrs
34.8
5'9"
HeightΔ 0"
5'9"
71"
ReachΔ 0"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
95.4
Layoff (months)Δ 91.6 mo
3.8
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Jake Ellenberger carries real power — 0.98 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Jake Ellenberger hunts takedowns — 2.04 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.27 Welterweight norm.
Kelvin Gastelum carries real power — 0.43 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Jake Ellenberger

Full career not yet synced for Jake Ellenberger — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Kelvin Gastelum

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1411
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.01 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.0 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4172.47/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
12693.65/min · norm 3.25
4782.83/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
12223.52/min · norm 3.20
39.3%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
42.4%norm 47.4%
60.7%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
57.3%norm 53.8%
110.98/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
100.43/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jake Ellenberger

Distance 74.6% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 12.2% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 13.2% (norm 8.1%)

Kelvin Gastelum

Distance 90.0% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jake Ellenberger

Head 86.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 4.4% (norm 8.4%)

Kelvin Gastelum

Head 80.8% (norm 78.0%) · Body 10.9% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ellenberger L/AAccWelterweight med Gastelum L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 259 / 791 32.7% 38.6% 1082 / 2695 40.1% 40.5%
In the clinch 83 / 129 64.3% 67.8% 109 / 171 63.7% 70.3%
On the ground 75 / 140 53.6% 67.2% 78 / 129 60.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 307 / 912 33.7% 37.2% 824 / 2419 34.1% 38.9%
To the body 72 / 101 71.3% 70.7% 233 / 326 71.5% 71.7%
To the legs 38 / 47 80.9% 82.9% 212 / 250 84.8% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ellenberger L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Gastelum L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 338 / 1002 33.7% 39.0% 1052 / 2613 40.3% 39.5%
In the clinch 73 / 112 65.2% 68.9% 102 / 153 66.7% 70.9%
On the ground 67 / 102 65.7% 68.0% 68 / 97 70.1% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 314 / 986 31.8% 35.6% 768 / 2234 34.4% 37.9%
To the body 88 / 137 64.2% 69.6% 274 / 406 67.5% 71.3%
To the legs 76 / 93 81.7% 82.1% 180 / 223 80.7% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2347.9% acc · 2.04/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
2435.3% acc · 1.04/15 · norm 1.42
2586.2% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
5560.4% def · norm 63.1%
34:4320.5% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
47:1513.6% of cage time · norm 19.75%
19:501:45 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
51:252:13 per 15 · norm 3:00
40.36/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
20.09/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gastelum has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.