BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Jai Herbert vs.
Kyle Nelson

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

4-5-1 Jai Herbert · UFC
5-6-1 Kyle Nelson · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

4-5-1
UFC record
5-6-1
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
38
AgeΔ 3 yrs
35
6'1"
HeightΔ 2"
5'11"
77"
ReachΔ 6"
71"
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
3.6
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
4.3
WLWLD
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Jai Herbert carries real power — 0.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Jai Herbert rarely shoots — 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.38 Lightweight norm.
Kyle Nelson absorbs 4.58 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.47 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Jai Herbert

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 45
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 50
Tier 3 — regional circuit 51

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.97 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Kyle Nelson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 56
Tier 3 — regional circuit 121

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.79 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3413.19/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
4133.60/min · norm 3.54
3583.34/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
5254.58/min · norm 3.47
41.6%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
45.8%norm 45.0%
53.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 54.85%
60.84/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.13/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jai Herbert

Distance 88.8% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 8.0%)

Kyle Nelson

Distance 88.2% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 9.5% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 2.2% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jai Herbert

Head 75.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 16.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.8% (norm 7.9%)

Kyle Nelson

Head 73.9% (norm 77.4%) · Body 16.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 7.8%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Herbert L/AAccLightweight med Nelson L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 268 / 728 36.8% 37.9% 346 / 796 43.5% 40.9%
In the clinch 48 / 57 84.2% 67.3% 54 / 86 62.8% 70.8%
On the ground 25 / 35 71.4% 69.1% 13 / 20 too few to rate 69.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 182 / 616 29.5% 35.0% 231 / 667 34.6% 37.2%
To the body 100 / 132 75.8% 69.1% 108 / 150 72.0% 68.2%
To the legs 59 / 72 81.9% 81.9% 74 / 85 87.1% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Featherweight: 126 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Herbert L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Nelson L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 264 / 640 41.2% 38.9% 382 / 916 41.7% 39.2%
In the clinch 57 / 72 79.2% 68.6% 43 / 58 74.1% 70.3%
On the ground 37 / 49 75.5% 68.0% 100 / 163 61.3% 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 197 / 529 37.2% 35.1% 300 / 862 34.8% 35.9%
To the body 70 / 104 67.3% 68.1% 125 / 157 79.6% 67.9%
To the legs 91 / 128 71.1% 81.5% 100 / 118 84.7% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

321.4% acc · 0.42/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
923.1% acc · 1.18/15 · norm 1.19
2266.7% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
1266.7% def · norm 61.5%
17:4416.6% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
23:3120.5% of cage time · norm 16.7%
26:263:42 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
26:173:26 per 15 · norm 3:12
00.00/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
40.52/15 · norm 0.46

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nelson has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.