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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari

UFC 6-2-0 vs. 1-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-2-0
UFC record
1-3-0
Women's Strawweight
Division (benchmark)
Women's Strawweight
24
AgeΔ 6 yrs
30
5'3"
HeightΔ 0"
5'3"
66"
ReachΔ 4"
62"
Orthodox5-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox0-2 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
0.4
WWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Iasmin Lucindo has owned orthodox fighters — 5-1 in the UFC (1-1 vs everyone else), and Nicolle Caliari is orthodox.
Nicolle Caliari hunts takedowns — 2.75 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.10 Women's Strawweight norm.
Iasmin Lucindo hunts takedowns — 2.37 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.10 Women's Strawweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Iasmin Lucindo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 62
Tier 3 — regional circuit 124

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.9 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Nicolle Caliari

Full career not yet synced for Nicolle Caliari — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3493.07/min · norm 3.77
Sig. strikes landed
1462.67/min · norm 3.77
3032.66/min · norm 4.00
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2644.83/min · norm 4.00
46.7%norm 44.5%
Striking accuracy
42.8%norm 44.5%
60.4%norm 54.4%
Striking defense
51.9%norm 54.4%
00.00/15 · norm 0.00
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.00

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Iasmin Lucindo

Distance 87.4% (norm 86.9%) · Clinch 7.1% (norm 7.7%) · Ground 5.5% (norm 5.1%)

Nicolle Caliari

Distance 88.9% (norm 86.9%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 7.7%) · Ground 5.6% (norm 5.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Iasmin Lucindo

Head 79.3% (norm 76.6%) · Body 16.3% (norm 14.9%) · Legs 4.4% (norm 9.1%)

Nicolle Caliari

Head 76.0% (norm 76.6%) · Body 19.1% (norm 14.9%) · Legs 5.0% (norm 9.1%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Lucindo L/AAccWomen's Strawweight med Caliari L/AAccWomen's Strawweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 277 / 654 42.4% 38.3% 116 / 303 38.3% 38.3%
In the clinch 38 / 53 71.7% 72.6% 15 / 19 too few to rate 72.6%
On the ground 34 / 41 82.9% 75.0% 15 / 19 too few to rate 75.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 232 / 593 39.1% 35.4% 93 / 259 35.9% 35.4%
To the body 91 / 122 74.6% 69.3% 39 / 65 60.0% 69.3%
To the legs 26 / 33 78.8% 78.5% 14 / 17 too few to rate 78.5%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Women's Strawweight: 63 fighters · Women's Strawweight: 63 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Lucindo L/AOpp accWomen's Strawweight med vs Caliari L/AOpp accWomen's Strawweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 255 / 701 36.4% 39.7% 213 / 484 44.0% 39.7%
In the clinch 38 / 52 73.1% 71.7% 26 / 36 72.2% 71.7%
On the ground 10 / 12 too few to rate 75.0% 25 / 29 86.2% 75.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 168 / 554 30.3% 36.0% 200 / 461 43.4% 36.0%
To the body 79 / 123 64.2% 68.9% 58 / 78 74.4% 68.9%
To the legs 56 / 88 63.6% 79.1% 6 / 10 too few to rate 79.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1858.1% acc · 2.37/15 · norm 1.10
Takedowns landed
1028.6% acc · 2.75/15 · norm 1.10
1365.0% def · norm 64.1%
Takedowns stopped
240.0% def · norm 64.1%
34:1730.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
16:0729.5% of cage time · norm 19.0%
14:581:58 per 15 · norm 3:00
Time under control lower is better
14:083:52 per 15 · norm 3:00
10.13/15 · norm 0.29
Submission attempts
10.27/15 · norm 0.29

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lucindo has more cage time on record.