Hatsu Hioki vs.
Clay Guida
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Hatsu Hioki
Full career not yet synced for Hatsu Hioki — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 1-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500
Clay Guida
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 18 | 19 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 19 | 5 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 61 documented bouts
In the UFC: 10-16 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Hatsu Hioki
Distance 83.0% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 11.2% (norm 6.5%)
Clay Guida
Distance 82.1% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Hatsu Hioki
Head 70.6% (norm 77.4%) · Body 25.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 3.6% (norm 7.8%)
Clay Guida
Head 82.6% (norm 78.2%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Hioki L/A | Acc | Featherweight med | Guida L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 178 / 480 | 37.1% | 40.9% | 753 / 2862 | 26.3% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 22 / 33 | 66.7% | 70.8% | 158 / 223 | 70.9% | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 52 / 65 | 80.0% | 69.2% | 245 / 401 | 61.1% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 152 / 408 | 37.3% | 37.2% | 691 / 2881 | 24.0% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 82 / 149 | 55.0% | 68.2% | 186 / 291 | 63.9% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 18 / 21 | too few to rate | 80.7% | 279 / 314 | 88.9% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 126 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Hioki L/A | Opp acc | Featherweight med | vs Guida L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 160 / 565 | 28.3% | 39.2% | 1018 / 3003 | 33.9% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 43 / 65 | 66.2% | 70.3% | 208 / 287 | 72.5% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 40 / 65 | 61.5% | 69.4% | 118 / 147 | 80.3% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 137 / 502 | 27.3% | 35.9% | 1031 / 3003 | 34.3% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 61 / 103 | 59.2% | 67.9% | 211 / 309 | 68.3% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 45 / 90 | 50.0% | 81.5% | 102 / 125 | 81.6% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guida has more cage time on record.