BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Gunnar Nelson vs.
Kevin Holland

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

10-6-0 Gunnar Nelson · UFC
16-12-0 (1 NC) Kevin Holland · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

10-6-0
UFC record
16-12-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
38
AgeΔ 5 yrs
33
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
72"
ReachΔ 9"
81"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
16.5
Layoff (months)Δ 12.7 mo
3.8
LWWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Gunnar Nelson is a submission threat — 1.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.45 Welterweight norm.
Gunnar Nelson owns the mat — in control 35% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Kevin Holland rarely shoots — 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.42 Middleweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Gunnar Nelson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 106
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.39 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 17 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Kevin Holland

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1812
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 12
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 19 tier-1/2 wins · 23 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2921.77/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
12884.18/min · norm 3.25
5063.06/min · norm 3.06
Sig. strikes absorbed
10173.30/min · norm 3.20
61.2%norm 44.9%
Striking accuracy
50.3%norm 47.4%
48.8%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
50.0%norm 53.8%
10.09/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
70.34/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Gunnar Nelson

Distance 64.2% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 8.6% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 27.3% (norm 8.1%)

Kevin Holland

Distance 82.8% (norm 79.4%) · Clinch 9.3% (norm 9.1%) · Ground 7.9% (norm 10.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Gunnar Nelson

Head 82.0% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 5.7% (norm 8.4%)

Kevin Holland

Head 70.1% (norm 78.0%) · Body 14.0% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 15.8% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nelson L/AAccWelterweight med Holland L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 148 / 306 48.4% 38.6% 962 / 2122 45.3% 40.5%
In the clinch 31 / 41 75.6% 67.8% 173 / 238 72.7% 70.3%
On the ground 113 / 130 86.9% 67.2% 153 / 203 75.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 222 / 391 56.8% 37.2% 704 / 1797 39.2% 38.9%
To the body 47 / 59 79.7% 70.7% 242 / 360 67.2% 71.7%
To the legs 23 / 27 85.2% 82.9% 342 / 406 84.2% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Middleweight: 174 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nelson L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Holland L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 277 / 678 40.9% 39.0% 741 / 1548 47.9% 39.5%
In the clinch 123 / 162 75.9% 68.9% 112 / 165 67.9% 70.9%
On the ground 106 / 149 71.1% 68.0% 164 / 319 51.4% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 265 / 686 38.6% 35.6% 574 / 1442 39.8% 37.9%
To the body 151 / 197 76.6% 69.6% 250 / 369 67.8% 71.3%
To the legs 90 / 106 84.9% 82.1% 193 / 221 87.3% 82.1%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2252.4% acc · 2.00/15 · norm 1.27
Takedowns landed
1739.5% acc · 0.83/15 · norm 1.42
1368.4% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
6757.8% def · norm 63.1%
58:2635.3% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
40:4613.2% of cage time · norm 19.75%
22:172:01 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control
100:394:53 per 15 · norm 3:00
111.00/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
130.63/15 · norm 0.47

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Holland has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.