Gilbert Burns vs.
Jason Saggo
Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.
The men, measured.
Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.
What the numbers say.
Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.
Who did they actually beat?
Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.
Gilbert Burns
| Competition tier | W | L |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin | 15 | 10 |
| Tier 3 — regional circuit | 7 | 0 |
Tier-weighted record quality: 1.21 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 32 documented bouts
In the UFC: 9-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500
Jason Saggo
Full career not yet synced for Jason Saggo — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).
In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500
The stand-up battle.
Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.
Significant strikes — landed & absorbed
Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)
Gilbert Burns
Distance 84.3% (norm 81.2%) · Clinch 7.1% (norm 9.4%) · Ground 8.5% (norm 8.1%)
Jason Saggo
Distance 77.3% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 3.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 19.8% (norm 8.0%)
What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)
Gilbert Burns
Head 74.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 13.8% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 11.9% (norm 8.4%)
Jason Saggo
Head 71.4% (norm 78.2%) · Body 12.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 16.3% (norm 7.9%)
Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone
Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.
| Zone | Burns L/A | Acc | Welterweight med | Saggo L/A | Acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 737 / 1708 | 43.1% | 38.6% | 102 / 313 | 32.6% | 37.9% |
| In the clinch | 99 / 144 | 68.8% | 67.8% | 6 / 12 | too few to rate | 67.3% |
| On the ground | 138 / 173 | 79.8% | 67.2% | 53 / 80 | 66.2% | 69.1% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 571 / 1506 | 37.9% | 37.2% | 90 / 289 | 31.1% | 35.0% |
| To the body | 216 / 279 | 77.4% | 70.7% | 25 / 50 | 50.0% | 69.1% |
| To the legs | 187 / 240 | 77.9% | 82.9% | 46 / 66 | 69.7% | 81.9% |
Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 182 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).
What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man
Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.
| Zone | vs Burns L/A | Opp acc | Welterweight med | vs Saggo L/A | Opp acc | Lightweight med |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BY POSITION | ||||||
| At distance | 957 / 2144 | 44.6% | 39.0% | 116 / 281 | 41.3% | 38.9% |
| In the clinch | 89 / 121 | 73.6% | 68.9% | 24 / 37 | 64.9% | 68.6% |
| On the ground | 89 / 126 | 70.6% | 68.0% | 49 / 77 | 63.6% | 68.0% |
| BY TARGET | ||||||
| To the head | 766 / 1896 | 40.4% | 35.6% | 137 / 324 | 42.3% | 35.1% |
| To the body | 196 / 298 | 65.8% | 69.6% | 28 / 37 | 75.7% | 68.1% |
| To the legs | 173 / 197 | 87.8% | 82.1% | 24 / 34 | 70.6% | 81.5% |
The ground war.
Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.
Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Burns has more cage time on record.