BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Fabricio Werdum vs.
Alexander Gustafsson

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

12-6-0 Fabricio Werdum · UFC
10-8-0 Alexander Gustafsson · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

12-6-0
UFC record
10-8-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Light Heavyweight
49
AgeΔ 10 yrs
39
6'4"
HeightΔ 1"
6'5"
77"
ReachΔ 2"
79"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
72.4
Layoff (months)Δ 23.9 mo
48.5
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Fabricio Werdum is a submission threat — 0.47 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.16 Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Gustafsson carries real power — 0.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.40 Light Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Gustafsson hunts takedowns — 1.53 per 15 minutes, vs a 0.87 Light Heavyweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Fabricio Werdum

Full career not yet synced for Fabricio Werdum — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 11-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Alexander Gustafsson

Full career not yet synced for Alexander Gustafsson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.9 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

8904.60/min · norm 3.36
Sig. strikes landed
7514.03/min · norm 3.41
6283.25/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed
6593.53/min · norm 3.35
56.4%norm 47.8%
Striking accuracy
40.7%norm 48.3%
54.9%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
51.4%norm 52.9%
40.31/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
90.72/15 · norm 0.40

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Fabricio Werdum

Distance 79.8% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 9.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 9.3%)

Alexander Gustafsson

Distance 85.8% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 5.7% (norm 8.6%) · Ground 8.5% (norm 10.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Fabricio Werdum

Head 75.9% (norm 79.2%) · Body 13.6% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 7.6%)

Alexander Gustafsson

Head 80.4% (norm 79.2%) · Body 11.1% (norm 11.7%) · Legs 8.5% (norm 9.7%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Werdum L/AAccHeavyweight med Gustafsson L/AAccLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 673 / 1260 53.4% 40.1% 575 / 1583 36.3% 41.4%
In the clinch 112 / 155 72.3% 70.6% 59 / 106 55.7% 70.9%
On the ground 105 / 164 64.0% 70.2% 117 / 156 75.0% 72.3%
BY TARGET
To the head 568 / 1199 47.4% 38.9% 523 / 1484 35.2% 38.9%
To the body 169 / 215 78.6% 76.8% 110 / 205 53.7% 71.9%
To the legs 153 / 165 92.7% 87.8% 118 / 156 75.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Light Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Werdum L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Gustafsson L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 482 / 1199 40.2% 40.7% 496 / 1131 43.9% 40.4%
In the clinch 97 / 140 69.3% 70.6% 101 / 148 68.2% 68.7%
On the ground 49 / 55 89.1% 72.0% 62 / 78 79.5% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 417 / 1107 37.7% 38.8% 398 / 992 40.1% 37.5%
To the body 82 / 115 71.3% 75.1% 102 / 162 63.0% 72.3%
To the legs 129 / 172 75.0% 84.4% 159 / 203 78.3% 83.0%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

1628.6% acc · 1.24/15 · norm 0.95
Takedowns landed
1939.6% acc · 1.53/15 · norm 0.87
426.7% def · norm 64.3%
Takedowns stopped
4183.7% def · norm 66.7%
36:0418.6% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
30:4416.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
21:431:41 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control
17:541:26 per 15 · norm 2:48
60.47/15 · norm 0.16
Submission attempts
50.40/15 · norm 0.27

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Werdum has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.