BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Evan Dunham vs.
Shamar Bailey

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

11-9-1 Evan Dunham · UFC
1-2-0 Shamar Bailey · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

11-9-1
UFC record
1-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44
AgeΔ 1 yrs
43
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 5"
75"
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
74
Layoff (months)Δ 102.5 mo
176.5
LLLDW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Evan Dunham is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Shamar Bailey's takedown defense leaks — 25% stopped, vs a 64% Lightweight norm.
Evan Dunham outworks the Lightweight division — 5.33 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.42 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Evan Dunham

Full career not yet synced for Evan Dunham — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Shamar Bailey

Full career not yet synced for Shamar Bailey — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12285.33/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
712.04/min · norm 3.42
8163.54/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1333.81/min · norm 3.37
39.3%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
25.4%norm 43.5%
61.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
72.1%norm 56.3%
20.13/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Evan Dunham

Distance 89.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

Shamar Bailey

Distance 91.0% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Evan Dunham

Head 91.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.9% (norm 7.9%)

Shamar Bailey

Head 82.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 9.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dunham L/AAccLightweight med Bailey L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1024 / 2811 36.4% 37.9% 53 / 254 20.9% 37.9%
In the clinch 142 / 218 65.1% 67.3% 11 / 12 too few to rate 67.3%
On the ground 62 / 99 62.6% 69.1% 7 / 13 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1039 / 2849 36.5% 35.0% 43 / 229 18.8% 35.0%
To the body 137 / 221 62.0% 69.1% 14 / 25 56.0% 69.1%
To the legs 52 / 58 89.7% 81.9% 14 / 25 56.0% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dunham L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Bailey L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 639 / 1840 34.7% 38.9% 110 / 438 25.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 122 / 202 60.4% 68.6% 2 / 5 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 55 / 87 63.2% 68.0% 21 / 33 63.6% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 557 / 1767 31.5% 35.1% 121 / 452 26.8% 35.1%
To the body 160 / 232 69.0% 68.1% 9 / 19 too few to rate 68.1%
To the legs 99 / 130 76.2% 81.5% 3 / 5 too few to rate 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2833.3% acc · 1.82/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
535.7% acc · 2.15/15 · norm 1.38
5979.7% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
125.0% def · norm 64.0%
52:2122.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
9:3327.4% of cage time · norm 19.5%
27:521:48 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
4:482:03 per 15 · norm 2:46
150.98/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dunham has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.