BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Evan Dunham vs.
Melvin Guillard

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

11-9-1 Evan Dunham · UFC
12-9-0 (1 NC) Melvin Guillard · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

11-9-1
UFC record
12-9-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44.6
AgeΔ 1.2 yrs
43.4
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
74
Layoff (months)Δ 74.9 mo
148.9
LLLDW
Last 5 (newest first)
LNCWLL
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Melvin Guillard carries real power — 1.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.25 Lightweight norm.
Evan Dunham is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Evan Dunham outworks the Lightweight division — 5.33 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.42 norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Evan Dunham

Full career not yet synced for Evan Dunham — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Melvin Guillard

Full career not yet synced for Melvin Guillard — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 4-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12285.33/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
4483.06/min · norm 3.42
8163.54/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
2671.83/min · norm 3.37
39.3%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
39.7%norm 43.5%
61.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
68.1%norm 56.3%
20.13/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
131.33/15 · norm 0.25

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Evan Dunham

Distance 89.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

Melvin Guillard

Distance 79.4% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 12.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Evan Dunham

Head 91.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.9% (norm 7.9%)

Melvin Guillard

Head 82.3% (norm 78.2%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.9% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dunham L/AAccLightweight med Guillard L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1024 / 2811 36.4% 37.9% 312 / 896 34.8% 37.9%
In the clinch 142 / 218 65.1% 67.3% 58 / 96 60.4% 67.3%
On the ground 62 / 99 62.6% 69.1% 78 / 136 57.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1039 / 2849 36.5% 35.0% 300 / 928 32.3% 35.0%
To the body 137 / 221 62.0% 69.1% 90 / 134 67.2% 69.1%
To the legs 52 / 58 89.7% 81.9% 58 / 66 87.9% 81.9%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Lightweight: 201 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dunham L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Guillard L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 639 / 1840 34.7% 38.9% 219 / 732 29.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 122 / 202 60.4% 68.6% 36 / 75 48.0% 68.6%
On the ground 55 / 87 63.2% 68.0% 12 / 31 38.7% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 557 / 1767 31.5% 35.1% 123 / 604 20.4% 35.1%
To the body 160 / 232 69.0% 68.1% 59 / 111 53.2% 68.1%
To the legs 99 / 130 76.2% 81.5% 85 / 123 69.1% 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2833.3% acc · 1.82/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
1466.7% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.38
5979.7% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
5865.2% def · norm 64.0%
52:2122.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
12:558.8% of cage time · norm 19.5%
27:521:48 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
34:063:29 per 15 · norm 2:46
150.98/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
20.21/15 · norm 0.49

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guillard has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.