BOUTSCOUT
Matchup deep-dive

Evan Dunham vs.
Herbert Burns

Two full careers, measured against each man's own division and against each other — the tape, the read, and every number behind them.

11-9-1 Evan Dunham · UFC
2-4-0 Herbert Burns · UFC
Tale of the tape

The men, measured.

Frame, age, layoff and recent form — green marks the edge on each line.

11-9-1
UFC record
2-4-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
44.6
AgeΔ 6.1 yrs
38.5
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 3"
73"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
74
Layoff (months)Δ 50.4 mo
23.6
LLLDW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW
The read

What the numbers say.

Scouting notes, auto-generated — only stats deviating more than 25% from the division median make this list. No narratives, just deviations.

Herbert Burns is a submission threat — 1.57 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.46 Featherweight norm.
Herbert Burns hunts takedowns — 3.13 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.19 Featherweight norm.
Evan Dunham is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.49 Lightweight norm.
Level of competition

Who did they actually beat?

Full-career records re-graded by the tier of opposition — the same grading the Contender Series pick model uses. Records built on tier-4 competition are worth less than records built on killers.

Evan Dunham

Full career not yet synced for Evan Dunham — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 7-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Herbert Burns

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 86
Tier 3 — regional circuit 30

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.15 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.7 wins over .500

Striking

The stand-up battle.

Career totals; norms are the medians of each man's own division.

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

12285.33/min · norm 3.42
Sig. strikes landed
711.85/min · norm 3.54
8163.54/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed
1945.07/min · norm 3.47
39.3%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
36.0%norm 45.0%
61.7%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
41.4%norm 54.85%
20.13/15 · norm 0.25
Knockdowns
10.39/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Evan Dunham

Distance 89.9% (norm 82.8%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.6%) · Ground 3.2% (norm 8.0%)

Herbert Burns

Distance 83.2% (norm 85.7%) · Clinch 7.6% (norm 6.1%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 6.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Evan Dunham

Head 91.1% (norm 78.2%) · Body 7.1% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 1.9% (norm 7.9%)

Herbert Burns

Head 73.6% (norm 77.4%) · Body 19.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.6% (norm 7.8%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dunham L/AAccLightweight med Burns L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1024 / 2811 36.4% 37.9% 48 / 164 29.3% 40.9%
In the clinch 142 / 218 65.1% 67.3% 12 / 15 too few to rate 70.8%
On the ground 62 / 99 62.6% 69.1% 11 / 18 too few to rate 69.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 1039 / 2849 36.5% 35.0% 38 / 145 26.2% 37.2%
To the body 137 / 221 62.0% 69.1% 24 / 39 61.5% 68.2%
To the legs 52 / 58 89.7% 81.9% 9 / 13 too few to rate 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 201 fighters · Featherweight: 126 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dunham L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Burns L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 639 / 1840 34.7% 38.9% 94 / 196 48.0% 39.2%
In the clinch 122 / 202 60.4% 68.6% 14 / 18 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 55 / 87 63.2% 68.0% 86 / 117 73.5% 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 557 / 1767 31.5% 35.1% 139 / 266 52.3% 35.9%
To the body 160 / 232 69.0% 68.1% 36 / 43 83.7% 67.9%
To the legs 99 / 130 76.2% 81.5% 19 / 22 too few to rate 81.5%
Grappling

The ground war.

Takedowns, control and submissions — career totals with each man's per-minute rates against his division norm.

2833.3% acc · 1.82/15 · norm 1.38
Takedowns landed
834.8% acc · 3.13/15 · norm 1.19
5979.7% def · norm 64.0%
Takedowns stopped
250.0% def · norm 61.5%
52:2122.7% of cage time · norm 19.5%
Control time
8:3322.3% of cage time · norm 16.7%
27:521:48 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control
15:095:56 per 15 · norm 3:12
150.98/15 · norm 0.49
Submission attempts
41.57/15 · norm 0.46

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dunham has more cage time on record.

Next move

Let the engine settle it.